水利学报2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：663-674,12.DOI:10.3724/j.slxb.20250440
考虑水风光联合运行风险的主力水库调度规则提取方法
Extraction method for dispatching rules of the main reservoir considering joint operation risks in hydro-wind-solar power systems
摘要
Abstract
Reservoir scheduling rules are pivotal for guiding reservoir operations.To mitigate water abandonment and power shortage risks in integrated hydro-wind-solar systems,this study proposes a method for deriving main reservoir scheduling rules,accounting for joint operation risks.Multi-timescale inflow assessment criterion for water abandon-ment and power shortage risks are constructed,with Monte Carlo simulation and K-means clustering generating extreme condition scenario combinations to characterize risks and serve as model inputs.Considering hydraulic,elec-trical,and renewable energy consumption constraints,optimized scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower sta-tions are developed,and a main reservoir scheduling model is formulated to ensure no water abandonment or power shortages within fixed future periods.This model is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP)model,solved hourly within each scheduling cycle,to determine the upper bounds for water abandonment risk and the lower bounds for power supply assurance.Applied to a hydro-wind-solar base in southwest China,the effective-ness of the method is validated through comparative rules and multi-scenario tests,achieving no water abandonment in the flood season and no power shortages in the dry season compared to baseline rules.The approach consistently derives robust scheduling rules across scenarios,providing theoretical support for stable hydro-wind-solar operations under rapid renewable energy growth.关键词
弃水/缺电/调度规则/风险态势感知/能源消纳/电力保供Key words
abandoned water/power shortage/scheduling rules/risk situation awareness/energy consumption/power supply guarantee分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
廖胜利,阎紫鑫,李树山,刘本希,程春田,熊江..考虑水风光联合运行风险的主力水库调度规则提取方法[J].水利学报,2026,57(5):663-674,12.基金项目
智能电网重大专项(2030)(2025ZD0804900) （2030）
国家自然科学基金项目(52379004) （52379004）
