刑事技术2026，Vol.51Issue(3)：221-230,10.DOI:10.16467/j.1008-3650.2025.0016
贝叶斯定理是法庭科学比对方法的理论基础吗?
Is Bayes' Theorem the Theory Basis of Forensic Science Feature Comparison Method?
摘要
Abstract
Bayes' theorem is regarded as the most basic theory in much of the literature that discusses forensic science comparison methods.This paper analyzes the problems faced by using this theorem in forensic science,especially the significance of different representations in the theorem and the logical reasoning problem,and argues that Bayes' theorem cannot provide meaningful support for the conclusion of feature comparison,only as a calculation tool.If the forensic science comparison method is based on Bayes' theorem,the theoretical basis is not solid.At a time when forensic science methods are facing change,it is even more necessary to get to the bottom of the problem in theory.关键词
法庭科学/特征比对方法/贝叶斯定理/特征匹配价值理论Key words
forensic science/feature comparison methods/Bayes theorem/feature matching value theory分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
黎智辉,刘耀,王桂强..贝叶斯定理是法庭科学比对方法的理论基础吗?[J].刑事技术,2026,51(3):221-230,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3303702) （2023YFC3303702）
