中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）2026，Vol.24Issue(3)：271-284,14.DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20250257
基于逻辑回归算法的砂土液化判别概率模型分析与应用
Study on the probabilistic assessment model of sand liquefaction based on logistic regression algorithm
摘要
Abstract
Sand liquefaction caused by strong earthquakes is receiving increasing attention due to the frequency of extreme seismic events.The liquefaction possibility assessment is the primary task in the study of sand liquefaction.In this paper,a probability assessment model is established based on the field investigation of liquefaction cases,com-bined with the knowledge of probability statistics and logistic regression algorithm.The effectiveness of the model is verified by comparing with the existing deterministic liquefaction assessment methods.Furthermore,the parameters analysis affecting the liquefaction assessment results is also conducted.The results show that the liquefaction discrimi-nation model established in this paper has a success rate of 85.70%and 82.50%for rejudging the liquefaction and non-liquefaction cases;and a success rate of 88.00%and 72.00%for the discrimination of the validation set,demon-strating a good discrimination success rate.The fine particle content,overburden stress correction factor,the correc-tion coefficient for overburden stress,and the adjustment coefficient for seismic magnitude should be applied to cor-rect case data when applying this model to assess liquefaction potential,which can improve the accuracy of sand lique-faction assessment.At the same time,the model can provide specific discrimination formulas.In the future,when new samples are incorporated,the model can be further improved by adjusting and modifying based on various parameters.关键词
地震/砂土液化/逻辑回归算法/液化判别/概率模型Key words
earthquake/sand liquefaction/logistic regression algorithm/liquefaction assessment/probability model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李建,李敬军,范猛,朱凯斌,杨正权..基于逻辑回归算法的砂土液化判别概率模型分析与应用[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）,2026,24(3):271-284,14.基金项目
中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(GE0145B052021) （GE0145B052021）
中国水科院科技成果转化基金专项项目(GE121003A0032022,GE121003A0032024) （GE121003A0032022,GE121003A0032024）
流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室自主研究课题(SKL2022ZD05) （SKL2022ZD05）
