中国实用内科杂志2026，Vol.46Issue(5)：406-412,7.DOI:10.19538/j.nk2026050110
基于心脏磁共振成像构建扩张型心肌病患者1年内发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型
Construction of a predictive model for MACE within one year in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy based on CMR
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a predictive model for major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)within one year in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM)based on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging(CMR)data and to explore the value of late gadolinium enhancement in predicting MACE in DCM patients.Methods The basic data,CMR data,laboratory test results and echocardiography data of 92 DCM patients admitted to the Department of Cardiology,People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from September 2023 to December 2024 were collected continuously.According to occurrence of MACE during the follow-up,DCM patients were divided into MACE group and non-MACE group.Lasso regression was used to screen for the best predictors of MACE occurrence within 1 year,and the predictive nomogram model was constructed.Kaplan-Meier curve was used to analyze the relationship between LGE and prognosis.Results Totally 92 patients were followed up for an average of 7.5 months(0.3-12 months).After that,they were divided into the MACE group(32 cases)and the non-MACE group(60 cases).A dataset was made using patients' clinical data,CMR data,laboratory test results,echocardiography data,etc.,and Lasso regression and 10-fold cross-validation were used to screen out that LGE,BNP and left ventricular ejection fraction based on echocardiography(LVEF-Ultrasound)were the best predictors.A nomographic model of MACE within 1 year in DCM patients was constructed using the above 3 predictors.The AUC value of the model in all the research subjects was 0.83(95％CI:0.68-0.97).The difference in predictive probability by the model was relatively small compared with the actual probability.The decision curve revealed the net profit of the model under different risk threshhold.Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that the prognosis of LGE positive patients was significantly worse than that of LGE negative patients.Conclusion Positive LGE,BNP and LVEF-Ultrasound are independent predictors of MACE in DCM patients,and predictive models have some clinical value in identifying MACE events.Positive LGE indicates a poorer prognosis for DCM patients.关键词
扩张型心肌病/心脏磁共振成像/风险预测模型Key words
dilated cardiomyopathy/cardiac magnetic resonance imaging/risk prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
赛亚热木·西尔扎提,周航宇,王婷婷,王甜甜,李杰..基于心脏磁共振成像构建扩张型心肌病患者1年内发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型[J].中国实用内科杂志,2026,46(5):406-412,7.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2025D01C154) （2025D01C154）
