安徽农业科学2026，Vol.54Issue(11)：55-62,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2026.11.011
中国耕地利用对膳食结构变化的响应与预测
Response and Prediction of Cultivated Land Utilization to Dietary Structure Transformation in China
摘要
Abstract
This study employs the food cultivated land footprint method and a coupling coordination degree model to investigate the changing characteristics of per capita cultivated land use for plant-based and animal-based food production in China from 1990 to 2022,as well as the responsiveness of cultivated land utilization to dietary structure transformation.Using the balanced dietary pattern recommended in the Chinese Dietary Guidelines(2022)as the convergence benchmark for future dietary evolution,an ARIMA-GM(1,1)combined prediction model was developed to identify convergence time nodes for annual per capita consumption of various food categories,and established nonlinear models to forecast medium-to-long-term cultivated land demand for food consumption.Key findings include:From 1990 to 2023,cultivated land require-ments for plant-based and animal-based food consumption per capita showed generally opposite trends.The overall responsiveness of cultivated land use to dietary changes remained low,with declining supply-demand coupling coordination degrees for staple grains and sugar,increasing trends for fruits and animal-based foods,while vegetables and vegetable oils exhibited significant fluctuations.Short-term projections(2024-2030)indicate continued growth in animal-based food consumption alongside overall decline in plant-based food intake.Medium-to-long-term analysis suggests stabilization of dietary patterns balancing nutritional health and environmental sustainability by 2050,featuring reduced live-stock meat consumption,increased dairy intake,growing fruit-vegetable consumption,and stabilized demand for staple grains and vegetable oils.The weak responsivenessof cultivated land use to dietary transitionsis not conducive to meeting the increasingly diversified food demands of residents,necessitating optimized regulation of food supply-demand relationships.In the future,efforts should be made to continuously opti-mize the structure of cultivated land utilization,moderately expand food supply sources within the carrying capacity of resources and the envi-ronment,and continuously optimize the decision-making of business entities through technological and policy means.These measures aim to proactively address evolving food consumption demands and enhance supply-side responsiveness to dietary transformation.关键词
耕地利用/膳食结构/耦合协调度/食物供需关系/食物消费量预测Key words
Cultivated land utilization/Dietary structure/Coupling coordination degree/Food supply-demand relationship/Food consumption prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
季艺雯,马恩朴..中国耕地利用对膳食结构变化的响应与预测[J].安徽农业科学,2026,54(11):55-62,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42101267) （42101267）
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ40441). （2023JJ40441）
