财经理论与实践2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：70-79,10.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2026.03.009
地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响
Research on the Impact of Local Fiscal Pressure on Fiscal Policy Expectation Management
摘要
Abstract
Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022,this paper con-structs an index for managing expectations of local fiscal policies and empirically examines the im-pact of local fiscal pressure on this expectation management.The study finds that local fiscal pressure significantly reduces the level of expectation management of local fiscal policies,and this effect is primarily transmitted through the"tax-fee substitution"effect.This impact exhibits sig-nificant heterogeneity across different cities and regions,and the pressure from local government economic growth targets further intensifies this effect.In light of this,in the process of continu-ously alleviating local fiscal pressure,it is necessary to strengthen fiscal policy communication,enhance policy transparency and credibility,regulate local non-tax revenue,and weaken the rigid assessment constraints of local government economic growth targets.关键词
地方财政压力/地方财政政策预期管理/税费替代/地方经济增长目标Key words
local fiscal pressure/expectation management of local fiscal policies/tax and fee substitution/local economic growth target分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李辉,匡小平,刘雅楠..地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响[J].财经理论与实践,2026,47(3):70-79,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(18ZDA098) （18ZDA098）
江西省研究生创新专项基金资助项目(YC2023-B150) （YC2023-B150）
