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长江水库4种极端致灾情景的洪水模拟及风险评估

王祥 王红旗 邹毅

广东水利水电Issue(6):6-12,7.
广东水利水电Issue(6):6-12,7.

长江水库4种极端致灾情景的洪水模拟及风险评估

Flood Simulation and Risk Assessment for Four Extreme Disaster Scenarios in Changjiang Reservoir

王祥 1王红旗 2邹毅2

作者信息

  • 1. 中山市水库水电工程管理中心,广东 中山 528403
  • 2. 华南农业大学 水利与土木工程学院,广州 510642
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

This study takes the Changjiang Reservoir in Zhongshan City as the research object.Four extreme disaster scenarios were established based on the breach size,breach formation speed,and initial reservoir water level.Using the TUFLOW software,the dam-break flood propagation process was simulated and calculated,followed by a systematic analysis of the flood characteristics and inundation risks under the different scenarios.The results indicate that the maximum peak discharge,and inundation area are influenced by the comprehensive effects of the breach size,breach formation speed,and initial water level.The most hazardous scenario is the"high water level+instantaneous large breach"overtopping failure.Under the same conditions,a higher initial reservoir level leads to a larger flood scale;furthermore,the peak discharge and water level decrease with increasing distance from the dam.In terms of spatial distribution,the Torch Development Zone and Dongqu Street suffer the most severe impacts,with areas along the Xiaoyin Chong waterway and major transportation arteries identified as high-risk zones.This research provides a theoretical basis and technical support for flood control decision-making and regional disaster emergency management for this reservoir.

关键词

溃坝洪水/多情景模拟/TUFLOW模型/风险评估/长江水库

Key words

dam-break flood/multi-scenario simulation/TUFLOW model/risk assessment/changjiang reservoir

分类

建筑与水利

引用本文复制引用

王祥,王红旗,邹毅..长江水库4种极端致灾情景的洪水模拟及风险评估[J].广东水利水电,2026,(6):6-12,7.

广东水利水电

1008-0112

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