大地测量与地球动力学2026，Vol.46Issue(6)：710-717,8.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2025.09.317
基于深度学习的日本强震远场触发中国东北地震预测
Prediction on Far-Field Triggering Earthquakes in Northeast China Induced by Japanese Strong Earthquakes Based on Deep Learning
摘要
Abstract
Far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms represent a critical frontier in earthquake predic-tion research.To explore the spatiotemporal relationship between strong seismic activity in Japan and moderate-to-strong earthquakes in northeast China,this study develops a data-driven prediction model.Based on the USGS earthquake catalog from 1980 to 2024,and using M≥6.0 earthquakes in Japan as potential triggers,the model predicts the probability of earthquakes withM≥4occurring in northeast China within the next 60 days.A daily-resolution time series dataset is constructed,incor-porating 32-dimensional features covering earthquake statistics,spatial distribution,energy release,and aftershock sequences.Deep learning models including long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks,attention mechanism-enhanced LSTM(Attention-LSTM),and Transformer are systemat-ically compared against traditional machine learning methods such as logistic regression and random forest.Results indicate that the Attention-LSTM model performs optimally,achieving an F1 score of 0.915 and an AUC value of 0.661,and shows significant advantages in Molchan error diagram analy-sis,a method specific to earthquake prediction evaluation.The model enables both binary classification prediction and generation of spatial probability distribution maps at 1° × 1° grid resolu-tion.This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning for revealing cross-regional far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms and provides new insights for short-to-medium-term regional seis-mic hazard assessment.关键词
深度学习/注意力机制长短期记忆网络/远场地震触发/地震时空预测Key words
deep learning/attention-based long short-term memory network(Attention-LSTM)/far-field earthquake triggering/spatiotemporal earthquake forecasting分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
高峰,李美..基于深度学习的日本强震远场触发中国东北地震预测[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2026,46(6):710-717,8.基金项目
2025年度黑龙江省地震局黑龙江及邻区地震数据综合应用创新团队. （）
