工业技术经济2026，Vol.45Issue(7)：113-123,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2026.07.010
基于曲线投影寻踪动态聚类模型的天然气进口风险评价
Risk Assessment of Natural Gas Imports Based on a Curve Projection Pursuit Dynamic Clustering Model
摘要
Abstract
Various risk factors encountered during natural gas imports threaten supply security.Given the complexity and multiplicity of factors affecting natural gas import security,this study designs a novel risk assessment indicator system based on the DPSIRM theoretical model and constructs a curve projection pursuit dynamic clustering risk assessment model.Using China's natural gas import data from 2010 to 2024 as the research subject,this study quantitatively evaluates the risks associated with China's natu-ral gas imports.The empirical results indicate the following:(1)key factors significantly impacting China's natural gas import se-curity include the degree of external dependence on natural gas,long-term import capacity,stability of transit routes,transporta-tion distance,diversification of import sources,geopolitical risks,and import prices;(2)from 2010 to 2024,China's natural gas import network transitioned through five distinct states:"safe-highly unsafe-marginally safe-unsafe-marginally safe";(3)among China's natural gas import sources,countries with relatively high comprehensive risk levels include Turkmenistan,Nigeria,Papua New Guinea,Oman,Myanmar,Egypt,the United States,and Uzbekistan,while those with relatively lower comprehen-sive risk levels include Malaysia,Russia,Australia,Qatar,Brunei,Kazakhstan,and Peru.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed to promote the healthy development of the natural gas sector in China.This study also provides new ideas and metho-dologies for governments,enterprises,and academia to conduct risk analysis.关键词
天然气/DPSIRM模型/曲线投影寻踪动态聚类模型/风险评价/进口安全/能源安全/地缘风险/对外依存度Key words
natural gas/DPSIRM model/curve projection pursuit dynamic clustering mode/risk assessment/import se-curity/energy security/geopolitical risks/external dependence分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邢文婷,温万婷..基于曲线投影寻踪动态聚类模型的天然气进口风险评价[J].工业技术经济,2026,45(7):113-123,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"重大突发事件情境下我国进口天然气供应链韧性提升路径及创新政策研究"(项目编号:23BGL220). （项目编号:23BGL220）
