甘蔗糖业2026，Vol.55Issue(3)：44-55,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2026.03.006
气候变化背景下广西甘蔗种植气候适宜性的变化特征
Variation Characteristics of Climatic Suitability for Sugarcane Planting in Guangxi under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of climatic suitability for sugarcane cultivation in Guangxi under the background of climate change,daily meteorological data from 91 national meteorological stations in Guangxi during 1961-2025 were adopted in this study.The research period was divided into two stages:1961-1990(Pl)and 1991-2025(P2).Five key climatic zoning factors were selected,including annual mean temperature,active accumulated temperature above 20 ℃,average annual extreme minimum temperature,consecutive days with daily mean temperature over 25 ℃,and precipitation during the period with temperature above 20 ℃.With the support of GIS technology,the climatic suitability regionalization of sugarcane planting for the two periods was carried out.The spatial variation characteristics of climatic suitability between the two periods were comparatively analyzed,followed by verification with the actual planting area.The results showed that:①Compared with P1,the thermal conditions in Guangxi improved significantly in P2.The annual mean temperature,active accumulated temperature ≥20 ℃ and consecutive days with temperature ≥25 ℃increased obviously,while the annual extreme minimum temperature rose remarkably with reducing the risk of low-temperature freezing damage.The precipitation during the period ≥20 ℃ presented a uniform distribution and the scope of precipitation suitable areas expanded.②The climatically optimal and suitable areas for sugarcane planting in Guangxi increased,while the unsuitable areas decreased.The proportion of the most suitable area rose from 32.7％to 41.6％and the unsuitable area dropped from 28.9％to 17.5％,with the proportion of areas with improved suitability grade reaching 30.5％.The planting range showed a trend of northward shift and westward expansion,mainly concentrated in central and northwest Guangxi including Baise,Hechi,Liuzhou and Laibin.③The spatial distribution of climatic suitability zones for sugarcane planting was highly consistent with the actual planting areas in Guangxi.It verified that the improvement of climatic conditions was a critical driving factor for the expansion of sugarcane planting area in western and northern Guangxi since 1991.This study can provide a scientific basis for the layout optimization,disaster prevention and mitigation,and high-quality industrial development of sugarcane cultivation in Guangxi.关键词
甘蔗/气候变化/气候适宜性/时空变化Key words
Sugarcane/Climate change/Climatic suitability/Spatiotemporal variation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘芳,陈燕丽,覃志刚,李先平..气候变化背景下广西甘蔗种植气候适宜性的变化特征[J].甘蔗糖业,2026,55(3):44-55,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金"无人机多模态遥感和作物模型结合甘蔗糖分估算研究"(42465010) （42465010）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"高光谱遥感与地面观测数据结合的区域甘蔗糖分估算研究"(42105175) （42105175）
广西壮族自治区重大人才项目 （）
