电气传动2026，Vol.56Issue(6)：41-48,8.DOI:10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd26458
基于分位数回归和机器学习的变电站检修工程造价区间预测模型
An Interval Prediction Model for Maintenance Engineering Cost of Substations Based on Quantile Regression and Machine Learning
摘要
Abstract
With the increase in electricity demand,the rising maintenance costs of substation projects have put power grid companies under huge market pressure.Traditional cost methods cannot meet the needs of modern markets,so the construction of intelligent cost calculation models is the key to realize the modernization and refinement of capital management and control of power grid enterprises.Focuses on the cost estimation of primary equipment maintenance projects in substations,based on the compilation and analysis of historical project settlement data,the key influencing factors of total project costs were identified,and then,three deterministic prediction base models were established:a deep belief network,a BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithm,and a grey prediction model.Furthermore,considering the impact of uncertain factors in practical engineering scenarios on cost estimation,a probabilistic interval estimation model based on quantile regression was proposed by integrating the aforementioned base models.Finally,simulation tests using actual project data from Guangdong Province were conducted to verify the accuracy and reliability of the proposed models,which can provide strong guidance and reference for engineering practice.关键词
变电站设备检修/测算模型/深度置信网络/BP神经网络/灰色预测/分位数回归Key words
substation equipment maintenance/prediction model/deep belief network(DBN)/BP neural network(BPNN)/grey prediction/quantile regression分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黎立,庞圣养,钟荣豪,黄庆淡,张丽萍,张亚超..基于分位数回归和机器学习的变电站检修工程造价区间预测模型[J].电气传动,2026,56(6):41-48,8.基金项目
广东电网有限责任公司科技项目(030800KC23040012) （030800KC23040012）
