绿洲农业科学与工程2026，Vol.11Issue(2)：95-100,6.DOI:10.26941/j.cnki.2096-2177.2026.02.014
邢台西部山区苹果主要气象灾害分析与风险评估
Analysis and Risk Assessment of Major Meteorological Disasters Affecting Apples in the Western Mountainous Area of Xingtai
摘要
Abstract
Utilizing meteorological data such as temperature,precipitation,and sunshine from national stations in Xindu District and Neiqiu County,as well as other geographical and socio-economic data including elevation,apple cultivation area,and per capita disposable income of farmers,a comprehensive risk assessment index system for major meteorological disasters affecting apples in the western mountainous areas of Xingtai was established.This system includes 17 evaluation indicators across four dimensions:multi-disaster causative factors,disaster-prone environments,disaster-bearing bodies,and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight method were employed to determine the weights of each indicator,further constructing a risk index assessment model.Based on GIS technology,an assessment of meteorological disaster risks in the study area was conducted.The results indicate that the distribution of major meteorological disasters affecting apples in the western mountainous areas of Xingtai exhibits a trend of increasing severity from south to north.High and very high risks are primarily concentrated in Songjiazhuang Town,Houjiazhuang Township,Zhangmo Township,and Nansai Township,while medium risks are mainly distributed in Jijiacun Village Township,Jiangjunmu Town,Jiangshui Town,Luluo Town,and the western regions of Bai'an Township.关键词
苹果/权重/综合风险评估Key words
apple/weight/comprehensive risk assessment分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
赵志楠,张兆博,孙晶,彭朋,李迪,李俊国..邢台西部山区苹果主要气象灾害分析与风险评估[J].绿洲农业科学与工程,2026,11(2):95-100,6.基金项目
河北省气象局项目(23zc22) （23zc22）
邢台市科学技术局项目(2023ZC308) Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau Project(23zc22) （2023ZC308）
Project of Xingtai Science and Technology Bureau(2023ZC308) （2023ZC308）
