交通运输研究2026，Vol.12Issue(2)：59-71,13.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2026.02.005
基于不同蓄意攻击的城市群客运网络级联失效与鲁棒性研究
Cascading Failure and Robustness of Urban Agglomeration Passenger Transport Networks under Different Deliberate Attack Strategies
摘要
Abstract
To accurately evaluate the robustness of multi-layer passenger transport networks in urban agglomerations,this study proposes a cascading failure model that couples overload failure with a modified percolation theory.First,a multi-layer coupled network incorporating sub-networks such as highways and railways,along with transfer relationships,is constructed using the Space-L method.Nodes are weighted by integrating station capacity with topological attributes.Second,based on the load-capacity model,a percolation failure criterion that comprehensively considers global,individual,and local dimensions is introduced to identify structural failure nodes that are difficult to capture using traditional overload-based models.Then,a network connectivity efficiency metric is constructed to quantify the degree to which network service functions are maintained,based on the proportion of nodes in each connected component after cascading failure to the total number of nodes in the initial network.Finally,the improved cascading failure model is simulated using the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Ulanqab urban agglomeration as a case study,analyzing robustness under different attack intensities(P=20%,P=70%),strategies(degree centrality,PageRank,giant connected component,and weighted modified betweenness attacks),and load levels(low,medium,high).The research reveals that low-intensity attacks primarily trigger overload failures,whereas high-intensity attacks shift toward percolation failures.Under the four attack strategies,the improved cascading failure model predicts the network collapse process to occur 47.4%,45.5%,50%,and 59.5%earlier,respectively.Furthermore,the structurally balanced long-distance bus network is sensitive to percolation failure,while the hub-and-spoke railway network is sensitive to overload failure.The results indicate that by incorporating dual failure mechanisms,this model can more accurately assess network robustness,providing crucial decision-making support for the differentiated protection of various passenger transport layers within urban agglomerations.关键词
城市群/复杂网络/蓄意攻击/渗流理论/级联失效/鲁棒性Key words
urban agglomeration/complex network/deliberate attack/percolation theory/cascad-ing failure/robustness分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
郑山江,王敬宇,李成兵,高东梅..基于不同蓄意攻击的城市群客运网络级联失效与鲁棒性研究[J].交通运输研究,2026,12(2):59-71,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(62063023) （62063023）
内蒙古自然科学基金(2023MS05036) （2023MS05036）
内蒙古自治区高等学校青年科技英才支持计划(NJYT22099) （NJYT22099）
