林业经济2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：31-46,16.
气象信息获取能力对林农风险防控行为影响研究
Research on the impact of meteorological information acquisition capacity on forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors
摘要
Abstract
Under the backdrop of global climate change,the impact of meteorological risks on forestry production continues to increase.The risk prevention and control behaviors of forest farmers serve as a crucial support for the sustainable development of forestry.This paper took 373 forest farmers from five typical economic forest planting areas in Shanxi Province as the research sample.It broke down the ability to obtain meteorological information into three dimensions:accessibility,diversity and accuracy.By combining information economics and planned behavior theory,an"information-cognition-behavior"analysis framework was established.Binary Logit models,negative binomial regression models and mediating effect tests were used to explore the influence mechanism of meteorological information acquisition capacity on forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors.Additionally,the mediating role of risk perception,as well as the heterogeneity effects caused by age and education level,were examined.The study showed that:(1)All three dimensions of meteorological information acquisition capacity had a significant positive impact on whether forest farmers adopted risk prevention and control measures and the number of such measures they implemented.(2)Risk perception acted as a significant mediator between meteorological information acquisition capacity and forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors,serving as a key link in transforming information into actual preventive actions.This created a causal pathway of"meteorological information acquisition-risk perception-forest farmers'risk prevention behaviors".(3)There was clear group heterogeneity in forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors.Younger farmers with higher education levels were more influenced by factors like information accessibility and accuracy.In contrast,older farmers with lower education levels relied more on information diversity and their own risk perceptions when making prevention decisions.This paper detailed the three dimensions of meteorological information acquisition capacity and provided quantitative measurements.It systematically verified the mediating role of risk perception in the relationship between meteorological information and risk prevention and control behaviors in forestry.This filled a gap in existing research regarding the"information-cognition-behavior"dynamics in forestry.Additionally,it identified the patterns of heterogeneity in forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors based on age and education level,providing a new micro-level perspective for research on forestry meteorological risk management.Based on these findings,the paper proposed policy implications to enhance forest farmers'ability to cope with meteorological risks through three approaches:establishing a three-tiered meteorological information service system,developing targeted risk perception training programs,and creating tailored incentive mechanisms,so as to promote the high-quality development of the forestry industry.关键词
气象信息获取能力/林农风险防控行为/风险认知/中介效应Key words
meteorological information acquisition capacity/forest farmers'risk prevention and control behaviors/risk perception/mediating effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘一凝,杨燕..气象信息获取能力对林农风险防控行为影响研究[J].林业经济,2026,48(1):31-46,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"气象风险冲击下经济林农户生产行为及风险防控研究"(72203133). （72203133）
