农业环境科学学报2026，Vol.45Issue(5)：1258-1276,19.DOI:10.11654/jaes.2025-0645
莠去津环境分布的趋势研判
Projecting trend of atrazine's environmental distribution:a simulation approach demonstrated in Dianchi basin with SWAT-KM Model
摘要
Abstract
In this study,the SWAT-KM model was employed to simulate the temporospatial dynamics of atrazine concentrations in multiple environmental compartments.The simulation period includes both the application phase from 2010 to 2021 and the post-prohibition period from 2022 to 2024,while CMIP6 meteorological scenarios(SSP2-4.5)were adopted to forecast atrazine dynamics from 2025 to 2030.Following a successful hydrological calibration,SWAT-KM reproduced atrazine concentrations as sampled at multiple sites with high accuracy in Dianchi basin(85％within one order).Simulation results reveal that higher riverine exposure often occur in the northern subbasins,and atrazine concentrations in soil and air closely related to the spatial patter of land use.The forecasting simulations show that the atrazine concentrations in reaches and soil will decrease by 65％within nine years of its application cessation,whereas those in the Dianchi Lake,both in the water column and the bed sediment,will continue to rise.These findings underscore the pronounced persistence and latency of atrazine,suggesting an alarm to its lingering environmental risks.关键词
莠去津/滇池/新污染物/多介质环境模型/农药/未来情景仿真/SWATKey words
atrazine/Dianchi/emerging contaminants/multiple media environmental model/pesticide/scenario simulation/SWAT分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
董路,孟耀斌,李盛泽,李家蔚,黄凯,于相毅,毛岩..莠去津环境分布的趋势研判[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(5):1258-1276,19.基金项目
云南滇池流域新污染物空间分布分析与风险预警机制研究项目(GR25A110QFC0001) （GR25A110QFC0001）
北京师范大学珠海校区"冲补强"专项 Research Project on Spatial Distribution Analysis and Risk Early Warning Mechanism of New Pollutants in Dianchi Basin,Yunnan Province(GR25A110QFC0001) （GR25A110QFC0001）
The"Rushing,Supplementing and Strengthening"Special Project of Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai （）
