四川林业科技2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：107-117,11.DOI:10.12172/202601130005
森林地表可燃物载量预测模型研究进展
Research progress on forest surface fuel load prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Forest fire is the key disturbance factor in forest ecosystem succession,and its occurrence intensity and fire spread rate are deeply regulated by the surface fule load.Especially in the areas where the fule layer is continuously distributed,the load level directly determines the fire risk level and fire behavior characteristics.Therefore,constructing high-precision fule load prediction model has become the core link in improving the accuracy of forest fire risk forecasting.Based on domestic and international literatures on forest surface fule load,this paper reviewed the research methods of fule load,the application and verification of surface fule load prediction models,and the factors affecting the accuracy of fule load prediction models.At present,the research on the factors affecting the dynamic changes in surface fule load in China was still not perfect.The paper highlighted three major bottlenecks in current research:First,the coupling mechanisms of multiple factors was insufficiently analyzed,and some key driving factors were not fully considered in model construction;Second,the construction of basic databases was lagging,and the characteristic parameter systems of typical fuel types had not yet been perfected;Third,the regional scale adaptability had not been verified,and the promotion of models faced challenges of spatial heterogeneity.In order to solve the above issues,it is necessary to strengthen the construction of dynamic monitoring networks,multi-source data fusion analysis,spatial heterogeneity characterization,and multi-scale model integration research in the future,so as to promote the development of forest fire risk prediction towards refinement and intelligence direction.关键词
地表可燃物载量/载量研究方法/预测模型/模型精度Key words
surface fule load/fuel load research method/prediction model/model accuracy引用本文复制引用
刘昱灼,李杰婷,陈刚刚,李祎,李江荣..森林地表可燃物载量预测模型研究进展[J].四川林业科技,2026,47(3):107-117,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(2024YFF1701302-4) （2024YFF1701302-4）
西藏自治区自然科学基金项目(XZ202301JD0001G) （XZ202301JD0001G）
西藏农牧大学研究生创新计划项目(YJS2024-39). （YJS2024-39）
