山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.57Issue(3)：468-478,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2324.2026.03.008
大汶河流域土壤侵蚀强度时空变化规律及驱动因素研究
Spatiotemporal Variation of Soil erosion Intensity and Driving Factors in the Dawen River Basin
摘要
Abstract
As the largest tributary of the Yellow River in Shandong Province,conducting research on soil erosion in the Dawen River basin and clarifying the characteristics of soil erosion intensity will be of great significance for future soil and water conservation planning of the lower reaches of the Yellow River.This paper takes the watershed controlled by the Daicunba Hydrological Station in the Dawen River Basin as the study area,employing the RUSLE model and the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression(MGWR)model to calculate and analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of soil erosion modulus in the Dawen River Basin.The results show that temporally,from 1990 to 2022,the average soil erosion modulus in the Dawen River Basin was 685.3 t/(km2·a),decreasing at an average annual rate of 13.24 t/(km2·a).The soil erosion intensity was mainly low-intensity erosion,with an average micro-erosion area accounting for 70.5%and a light erosion area accounting for 22.4%.The mutation years were 2002 and 2003,and the mutation points passed the 0.05 significance test.Spatially,75.82%of the areas showed no significant change in soil erosion modulus,while 19.03%of the areas experienced a significant decline.The regions with significant decline were mostly concentrated in the marginal zones of mountainous areas.Global spatial autocorrelation exhibited an aggregation pattern,with a confidence level greater than 99%,indicating that the changes in soil erosion modulus were significantly influenced by spatial distribution.Local autocorrelation was dominated by low-low clustering.The MGWR results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity in the impact of influencing factors on soil erosion modulus.Soil and water conservation measures and slope are the two main driving factors of soil erosion in the Dawen River Basin,both exerting a positive effect.This is followed by the vegetation index,which has a negative effect.关键词
RUSLE/MGWR/时空格局/驱动因素Key words
RUSLE/MGWR/spatial and temporal patterns/driving factors分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
于泽涛,谭秀翠..大汶河流域土壤侵蚀强度时空变化规律及驱动因素研究[J].山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,57(3):468-478,11.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021ME058) （ZR2021ME058）
