水力发电学报2026，Vol.45Issue(6)：77-89,13.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20260607
北京市小时尺度极端降水变化趋势及对城市化的响应
Variation trends in hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing and its responses to urbanization
摘要
Abstract
This paper presents a systematical analysis on the trends in the hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing from 2000 to 2023 under the influence of urban heat islands and urbanization,based on the observation data of high-resolution precipitation,surface temperature,and impervious surface coverage.To achieve a comprehensive analysis,we use multiple statistical and spatial analysis methods-including trend testing,change point detection,L-moment analysis,cluster analysis,and space-time cube and emerging hot spot analysis.The results indicate a significant overall increase in extreme precipitation.The urbanizing process underwent a structural shift in 2011,leading to an elevated risk of extreme precipitation.High-value precipitation areas are primarily distributed in the city's southwestern part,while the regions with strong variability and extreme intensity are concentrated in the transitional zones between the urban core and the western and northern mountainous areas.The spatiotemporal patterns of urban heat island are characterized by a stable core and active periphery,closely related to that of the extreme precipitation.Combination of ongoing urbanization and intensifying heat island effects has intensified hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing,increasing spatial heterogeneity and complexity in associated risks.关键词
极端降水/小时尺度/城市化/热岛效应/L-矩分析/新兴热点分析Key words
extreme precipitation/hourly scale/urbanization/urban heat island effect/L-moment analysis/emerging hot spot analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨蒲昕,卢亚静,李永坤,杨思敏,阴悦,张旭旻,李新,刘晨阳..北京市小时尺度极端降水变化趋势及对城市化的响应[J].水力发电学报,2026,45(6):77-89,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012405) （2024YFC3012405）
北京市科技计划项目(Z251100004525022) （Z251100004525022）
