水土保持通报2026，Vol.46Issue(3)：342-356,15.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2026.03.022
黄河流域内蒙古段土地利用和生态系统服务价值时空演变及模拟预测
Spatiotemporal evolution and simulation prediction of land use and ecosystem service value in Inner Mongolia section of Yellow River basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The spatiotemporal evolution of land use and ecosystem service value in the Yellow River basin was analyzed and simulated in order to provide scientific support for ecological protection and high-quality development of the basin.[Methods]Taking the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin as the research object,and based on land use data from 1990 to 2023,a multi-dimensional analysis method was adopted.By combining land use dynamic changes with the spatial transfer matrix,the regional ecosystem service value(ESV)was quantified using the value equivalent assessment system,and the interaction between different land use types and ESV was revealed through the ecological contribution rate.Meanwhile,the intPLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern and ESV evolution trend under four scenarios in 2035:natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection,and urban development.[Results]① Grassland and unused land were the main land use types in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.The areas of construction land and forestland increased continuously,while the areas of unused land,cultivated land,and water bodies showed a decreasing trend.The total area of land use type conversion reached 47 272.91 km².The land use types with the strongest outward transfer were water bodies,forestland,and construction land,while grassland had the largest inward transfer.② From 1990 to 2023,the ESV in the study area decreased slightly by 0.85％,with grassland as the core contribution type.Spatially,it showed a pattern of"high in the northeast and low in the west",and the spatial agglomeration of high-value and low-value areas of ESV change rate was obvious in each stage.③ Among the four scenario simulations for 2035,only the ecological protection scenario could achieve ESV growth,while the ESV loss was the most significant under the urban development scenario.The change in grassland ESV dominated the overall trend.[Conclusion]The optimal development path in 2035 is to adhere to ecological priority,strictly control the disorderly expansion of urban areas,promote the restoration of core ecological land such as grassland,and realize the coordinated development of land use allocation and ecological protection.关键词
土地利用变化/生态系统服务价值/intPLUS模型/多情景模拟/黄河流域内蒙古段Key words
land use change/ecosystem service value/intPLUS model/multi-scenario simulation/Inner Mongolia section of Yellow River basin分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
蒙苏迪,赵红霞..黄河流域内蒙古段土地利用和生态系统服务价值时空演变及模拟预测[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(3):342-356,15.基金项目
内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目"三生空间"耦合机制下内蒙古沿黄地区旅游型乡村生态空间重构分析"(NJZY22503) （NJZY22503）
内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(BR230218) （BR230218）
