水资源保护2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：109-117,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2026.03.013
基于CMIP6的中国内陆干旱区降水和气温评估与预测
Assessment and prediction of precipitation and temperature in inland arid regions of China based on CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
Taking Xinjiang,a typical inland arid region of China,as the study area,this study applied the empirical quantile mapping method to correct the biases of precipitation and temperature outputs from 30 CMIP6 global climate models,comprehensively evaluated their applicability in Xinjiang,and selected an optimal multi-model ensemble to predict future precipitation and temperature under different emission scenarios.The results show that Xinjiang will experience a significant warming and humidification trend in the future.Compared to the baseline period of 1995-2014,by 2100 under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,annual precipitation is projected to increase by 15%(21 mm),23%(33 mm),25%(36 mm),and 48%(69 mm),respectively,and annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 2.3℃,3.6℃,5.3℃,and 6.7℃.The largest precipitation changes are expected in Hami City,Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,and the southern part of Hotan Prefecture,and the increased precipitation may help alleviate ecological water replenishment pressure in the lower reaches of the Tarim River.High temperature increase zones include the border areas of Tacheng Prefecture,Altay Prefecture,Urumqi City,and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,as well as most areas of Turpan City,Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,Hotan Prefecture,and Kashgar Prefecture,and the maximum temperature rise could reach 7.6℃in the far future(2076-2100).The future temperature rise will lead to exacerbated desertification in Turpan City,Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,and Hotan Prefecture,and intensify soil salinization and alkalization and farmland degradation in some areas.关键词
CMIP6/全球气候模型/偏差校正/降水量/气温/内陆干旱区/新疆Key words
CMIP6/global climate models/bias correction/precipitation/temperature/inland arid regions/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
李鑫,方国华,邓铭江..基于CMIP6的中国内陆干旱区降水和气温评估与预测[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):109-117,9.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240201036) （B240201036）
