水资源保护2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：198-208,260,12.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2026.03.023
黑河上游出山径流演变多时间尺度归因分析
Multi-time-scale attribution analysis of runoff evolution at mountain outlet of the upper Heihe River
摘要
Abstract
Taking mountainous area of the upper Heihe River as study area,this paper uses Mann-Kendall test and Yamamoto mutation test to identify trend and mutation characteristics of hydrometeorological factors based on hydrometeorological observation data from 1980 to 2022.ABCD-snow model coupled with a snowmelt module is established.Combined with Budyko coupled hydrothermal equilibrium framework at arbitrary time scales and considering coupling effect of multiple factors,an improved sensitivity attribution method is adopted to quantify impacts of climatic and underlying surface factors on multi-time-scale(annual,seasonal and monthly)evolution of runoff in the upper Heihe River before and after the mutation.The results show that runoff in the upper Heihe River experienced an abrupt change in 1997 over past 40 years.Before the mutation,annual runoff presented an insignificant decreasing trend with the largest decline in summer and autumn.After the mutation,annual runoff increased significantly;all seasons showed a remarkable growth trend except summer with an insignificant increase.ABCD-snow model effectively improves simulation performance of key hydrological processes in cold regions.Its efficiency coefficient during calibration period rose from 0.75 to 0.90,which well reflects snowmelt recharge characteristics of spring runoff.From 1980 to 1997,decrease of rainfall and rise of reference evapotranspiration in summer and autumn led to runoff reduction,especially in June,August and September.From 1998 to 2022,increased rainfall and snowmelt dominated runoff growth,while slowdown of reference evapotranspiration and improvement of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)further promoted watershed runoff generation.Runoff became more sensitive to climate change,with relative contribution rate rising from 56.9%to 70.7%before and after mutation,and synergistic effect of multiple factors was generally lower than 1.1%.关键词
径流演变/ABCD-snow模型/Budyko水热耦合平衡框架/多时间尺度/归因分析/黑河上游Key words
runoff evolution/ABCD-snow model/Budyko coupled hydrothermal equilibrium framework/multiple time scale/attribution analysis/the upper Heihe River引用本文复制引用
邹星怡,杨林山,贺王含,王婧茹,卢调雪,夏鸿华..黑河上游出山径流演变多时间尺度归因分析[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):198-208,260,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52522901,52379030) （52522901,52379030）
中国科学院B类先导项目(XDB0720202) （XDB0720202）
甘肃省科技计划项目(24JRRA079) （24JRRA079）
中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(2022435) （2022435）
