铁道运输与经济2026，Vol.48Issue(6)：99-110,12.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.20250513004
考虑路网变化与线路特征的区域高速铁路新线客流预测方法
Passenger Flow Forecasting Method for Newly Opened Regional High Speed Railway Lines Considering Network Evolution and Line Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
To address the problem of systematic deficiency in passenger flow forecasting for newly opened high speed railway lines during the initial opening stage,this paper focused on the research of passenger flow forecasting for newly opened regional high speed railway lines.Existing passenger flow forecasting methods ignore line characteristics in the planning stage,mainly focus on single lines in the design stage,and rarely consider the impact of subsequent new line access on the passenger flow of the line itself during the operation-oriented initial opening stage.Given the continuous and rapid development of China's high speed railway,especially high speed railway lines for regional densification and reinforcement,which usually have a prominent function orientation of serving the regional network,the adjustment and optimization of transport organization such as train operation schemes must coordinate new lines and existing lines to systematically improve the overall efficiency of the network.For this reason,a passenger flow forecasting method for newly opened regional high speed railway lines considering network evolution and line characteristics was proposed.The method optimized the passenger flow allocation process between newly opened high speed railway lines and existing lines under the framework of the four-stage method and introduced a parameter calibration mechanism based on similar lines.The proposed method was applied and tested using the opening of the new Chizhou-Huangshan High Speed Railway as an example.The overall relative error of the prediction results is 6%.The research results can provide support for the collaborative optimization of transport organization in the regional high speed railway network after the commissioning of new lines.关键词
高速铁路新线/开通初期/路网变化/线路特征/相似线路比选Key words
Newly Opened High Speed Railway Line/Initial Opening Stage/Network Evolution/Line Characteristic/Similar Line Comparison and Selection分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
苗琦琦,单仕平,朱炜..考虑路网变化与线路特征的区域高速铁路新线客流预测方法[J].铁道运输与经济,2026,48(6):99-110,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72071147) （72071147）
中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研计划课题(2024046) （2024046）
