铁道运输与经济2026，Vol.48Issue(6)：183-192,10.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.20251103001
基于DID模型的中老铁路开通对沿线城市商贸流通产业集聚的影响研究
Research on Impact of China-Laos Railway Opening on Industrial Agglomeration of Commercial Circulation in Cities along Railway Line Based on DID Model
摘要
Abstract
As a landmark project of the"Belt and Road Initiative",the China-Laos Railway is an important driving force to promote the spatial optimization of the commercial circulation industry in cities along the line.Based on the panel data of eight cities/autonomous prefectures in Yunnan Province from 2018 to 2023,the DID model was adopted to systematically identify the impact of the China-Laos Railway opening on the industrial agglomeration of commercial circulation in cities along the line and its transmission path.The results show that under the condition of satisfying the parallel trend,the China-Laos Railway opening significantly improves the industrial agglomeration level of commercial circulation in cities along the line,and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.The mechanism test shows that the promoting effect of the China-Laos Railway on agglomeration is mainly realized through market potential and market accessibility;the heterogeneity analysis shows that the agglomeration effect is particularly significant in small and medium-sized cities,border cities,and transport-disadvantaged cities.The research provides empirical evidence for transport infrastructure driving regional industrial agglomeration under the"Belt and Road Initiative",which helps to differentially promote the optimization of regional industrial layout along the China-Laos Railway and enhance the driving effect of the corridor economy.关键词
中老铁路/产业集聚/DID模型/商贸流通/市场潜能/市场可达性Key words
China-Laos Railway/Industrial Agglomeration/DID Model/Commercial Circulation/Market Potential/Market Accessibility分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陆亚琴,李阅君..基于DID模型的中老铁路开通对沿线城市商贸流通产业集聚的影响研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2026,48(6):183-192,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42461026,41661029) （42461026,41661029）
云南省社会科学规划项目(YB2022025) （YB2022025）
云南财经大学校级科研项目(2024H36) （2024H36）
