人民珠江2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：101-114,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.05.010
基于系统协调性的鄂尔多斯水资源承载力评价及关键因子识别
Water Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Critical Determinant Identification in Ordos:A System Coordination Perspective
摘要
Abstract
Addressing the fundamental constraint of insufficient water resource endowment in Ordos,this research conducts a systematic investigation into the region's Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC).Specifically,a comprehensive analytical framework is established based on a three-dimensional evaluation system encompassing"water resources,social-economy,and ecological environment."Methodologically,the study employs a multi-model integration method for a robust analytical combination,involving the entropy weight TOPSIS method,the coupling coordination degree(CCD)model,and the grey relational analysis.Then,a systematic assessment is conducted on the spatiotemporal difference patterns,coordinated development trends,and critical influencing factors of WRCC across all banners and districts of Ordos from 2000 to 2023.The investigation results demonstrate an increasing trend in the WRCC performance of Ordos,increasing from 0.307(grade II,mild overload status)in 2000 to 0.616(grade IV,critical carrying state)in 2023.It indicates a substantial outcome of regional management strategies in the region.However,WRCC across different banners and districts are primarily in critical overload and critical carrying states,exhibiting significant spatial and temporal differences.Among these administrative divisions,Uxin Banner is the most outstanding due to its comparatively favorable resource conditions and advantageous management.In contrast,Dalad Banner is the weakest because of its constraints by the socio-economic structure and resource vulnerability.Additionally,subsystem coordination analysis uncovers two-phase evolutionary characteristics.Minor coordination fluctuations existed from 2000 to 2007,in a barely coordinated state,while the coordination level was significantly improved from 2008 to 2023,advancing from primary to intermediate coordination states.These changes indicate coordinated development gradually achieved between the systems.Further,grey correlation analysis identifies key factors influencing WRCC:GDP per capita,total water resource volume,GDP,and annual precipitation levels.The significant regional differences in WRCC across banners and districts in Ordos are fundamentally correlated with regional economic development levels,natural resource endowments,and ecological carrying capacities.Therefore,integrated planning for water resource utilization and protection should be performed based on developmental requirements and water resource conditions of each district.Rational development and efficient utilization of water resources should be promoted while steadfastly maintaining ecological security standards,thereby establishing a viable pathway for long-term regional sustainable development.This comprehensive approach necessitates balanced consideration of economic requirements,environmental protection imperatives,and resource sustainability principles to ensure enduring water security throughout the Ordos region.关键词
水资源/TOPSIS模型/耦合协调度模型/灰色关联度模型/承载力/鄂尔多斯市Key words
water resources/TOPSIS model/coupling coordination degree model/grey relational analysis/carrying capacity/Ordos City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张泽中,赵艳丽,尹航,来和鑫,凡盼盼,齐青青..基于系统协调性的鄂尔多斯水资源承载力评价及关键因子识别[J].人民珠江,2026,47(5):101-114,14.基金项目
"科技兴蒙"行动重点专项(2022EEDSKJXM004-4) （2022EEDSKJXM004-4）
鄂尔多斯市再生水等多水源联合调度技术研究(ZD20232323) （ZD20232323）
黄河流域严重缺水地区水资源可持续利用与综合调控技术研究(2022YFHH0069) （2022YFHH0069）
