朱洪民 1梁雪 1李生强 2顾建国 3曾祥波 1张俊先 4张鑫 4郑雄4
作者信息
- 1. 大熊猫国家公园德阳管理分局,四川 德阳 618000
- 2. 成都筑智境然规划设计有限公司,四川 成都 610066
- 3. 大熊猫国家公园绵竹管理总站,四川 绵竹 618299
- 4. 四川九顶山自然保护区管理处,四川 德阳 618000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To assess the impacts of climate change on the potential suitable habitats of giant pandas(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)in the southern section of Minshan Mountain,this study simulated the spatiotemporal patterns,vertical distribution characteristics,and driving mechanisms of giant panda habitats under current climate conditions(1970-2000)and four climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5)for the 2050s(2041-2060),2070s(2061-2080),and 2090s(2081-2100)using the MaxEnt model based on 30 giant panda occurrence points.The results showed that:(1)Precipitation seasonality(bio15,18.1％),slope(15.5％),precipitation of the driest quarter(bio17,11.2％),and elevation(11.1％)were the dominant environmental factors affecting giant panda habitats.Under current climate conditions,habitat suitability decreased with increasing bio15 and increased with increasing bio17,peaking at a slope of 12° and an elevation of 2 500 m.(2)The current areas of high-,medium-,and low-suitability habitats were 51 400.34 hm2,102 505.27 hm2,and 148 833.72 hm2,with core elevation ranges of 1 339-3 686 m,1 274-3 785 m,and 1 199-4 072 m,respectively,and the overall habitat was fragmented.(3)Under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6,high-suitability habitat expanded slightly by 11.84％and 2.20％in the 2050s and 2070s,accompanied by the smallest increases in key climatic variables and the mildest climate fluctuations among all scenarios.Future habitats overall tended to shrink,and habitat reduction was significantly negatively correlated with the increases in bio15 and bio17(P<0.01),which together explained more than 80％of the variation in habitat area.(4)The vertical distribution of suitable habitats contracted toward middle-to-high elevations with narrowed ranges,rather than shifting monotonically upward with rising emission levels;contraction was most drastic under RCP4.5 and relatively mild under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.(5)Tudiling corridor retained more than 60％of its suitable habitat under all scenarios,with stable core elevation and favorable connectivity.This study clarified the range,variation characteristics,and drivers of giant panda habitats in the southern section of Minshan Mountain under climate change,and provided a scientific basis for regional habitat conservation and climate-adaptive management of giant pandas.关键词
大熊猫/MaxEnt模型/岷山山系南段/气候变化/适生区/垂直迁移/气候驱动因子/土地岭廊道Key words
giant panda/MaxEnt model/southern section of Minshan Mountain/climate change/suitable habitat/vertical shift/climatic driving factor/Tudiling corridor
