中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(6)：813-826,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.06.001
甘肃省气象干旱时空变化对气候因素变化的响应
Response of Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Drought to Changes in Climatic Factors in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the measured data from ground monitoring meteorological stations in Gansu province,this paper used the standardized precipitation evaporation index(SPEI)to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of meteorological drought at the annual and seasonal scales in Gansu.Scatter plots and correlation coefficients were used to reveal the correlation between drought changes and climatic factors.The Gumbel-copula function was selected to construct a joint distribution model of SPEI and precipitation at the annual scale in Gansu province,to explore and identify the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought and the driving climatic factors,and to clarify the possibility of precipitation influencing dry and wet changes.The results showed that:(1)from 1984 to 2019,the change in precipitation(P)was not significant,while the average temperature(T)showed a significant upward trend,and potential evapotranspiration(ET0)showed a significant increase in Gansu province.(2)The annual-scale drought index in Gansu showed a non-significant downward trend,and it tended to become drier over the years.The overall drought trend tended to be stable.The severity of drought in the Hexi region was more severe than in other areas of Gansu province,and the area around Zhangye had suffered the most severe droughts for many years.(3)The order of drought severity in the four seasons was spring,summer,autumn and winter.The drought in spring was the most severe.The drought severity in the Hexi region was more severe in summer and autumn than in spring and winter,while the Longdong region and Longnan region showed more severe drought in spring and winter.(4)During the research period,the increase in precipitation across the province had raised the possibility of less severe droughts.The possibility of the maximum values of annual-scale SPEI and precipitation occurring simultaneously was 91.60%,showing a high degree of correlation.The maximum possibilities of light drought,moderate drought,severe drought and extreme drought were 80.38%,61.15%,38.62%and 18.81%,respectively.关键词
甘肃省/气象干旱/时空变化/气候要素/响应特征Key words
Gansu province/Meteorological drought/Spatiotemporal variation/Climatic factor/Response characteristics引用本文复制引用
马亚丽,牛最荣,张彦洪..甘肃省气象干旱时空变化对气候因素变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(6):813-826,14.基金项目
甘肃省引大入秦水资源利用中心项目(GSAU-JSFW-2026-04) （GSAU-JSFW-2026-04）
国家自然科学基金项目(42261003) （42261003）
甘肃省水利厅项目(GSAU-JSFW-2024-74) （GSAU-JSFW-2024-74）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目(25GSLK077) （25GSLK077）
