中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(6)：935-949,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.06.010
未来气候情景下白花前胡潜在适生区变化预测
Prediction of Changes in Potential Suitable Distribution Areas of Peucedanum praeruptorum under Future Climate Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Based on 89 geographical distribution records of Peucedanum praeruptorum Dunn and 36 environmental variables(including bioclimatic,topographic and soil factors),this study utilized an optimized the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of P.praeruptorum under historical(1970-2000)and future(2041-2060,2061-2080)climate scenarios.The research also identified the dominant climatic factors influencing its distribution,aiming to provide a theoretical foundation for the management,conservation,and rational site selection of this species.The results showed that:(1)the MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy,with an Area under the curve(AUC)of the Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of 0.909.(2)The dominant factors influencing the distribution of P.praeruptorum were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11,47.9%),annual precipitation(bio12,30.8%)and temperature seasonality(bio4,9.4%).These three variables collectively accounted for 88.1%of the contribution.(3)During the historical period,low-suitability areas for P.praeruptorum were primarily distributed in Shandong,Henan,Hebei and Shanxi provinces,while moderate and high-suitability areas were mainly concentrated in central and southern China.Under future climate change scenarios,the extent of potential suitable habitat showed relatively small changes,indicating a limited impact on the geographical distribution of P.praeruptorum.However,the distribution centroid exhibited a slight northeastward shift.(4)Under high-emission scenarios,niche overlap exhibited a declining trend,while niche breadth remained relatively stable across periods.This suggests that P.praeruptorum has broad ecological adaptability,tending to be a generalist species,although it may face reduced resource availability.关键词
白花前胡/MaxEnt模型/气候变化/适生区/生态位Key words
Peucedanum praeruptorum Dunn/MaxEnt model/Climate change/Suitable habitat/Niche引用本文复制引用
张青霞,林威,徐祥鑫,樊国春,刘一冰,邓敏,王逾涵,祁俊生..未来气候情景下白花前胡潜在适生区变化预测[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(6):935-949,15.基金项目
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(cstc2020jscx-tpyzxX0007) （cstc2020jscx-tpyzxX0007）
重庆市教委重点项目(KJZD-K202201207) （KJZD-K202201207）
