中国沼气2026，Vol.44Issue(3)：75-80,6.DOI:10.20022/j.cnki.1000-1166.2026030075
2015-2023年四川省环境空气中污染物间关联分析及趋势预测
Correlation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Ambient Air Pollutants in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2023
易灵 1钟果 1向秋实1
作者信息
- 1. 四川省生态环境监测总站,四川成都 610000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to fully implement the pollution prevention and control work in Sichuan Province and further improve air quality,this paper presents the change trend of main pollution indicators through the statistics of ambient air monitoring re-sults in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2023.The correlation analysis was made based on the temperature,precipitation,pollution discharge and socio-economic values.At the same time,a time series model was constructed based on SPSS26.0 software to forecast PM2.5 and good days rate in Sichuan Province in 2025.The results show that from 2015 to 2023,the av-erage annual concentration of NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 in the province showed a significant downward trend,the rate of good days fluctuated,and the 90 th percentile concentration of the maximum 8-hour sliding average of O3 day did not change much.The high values of PM10 and PM2.5 tend to appear in the time period when the temperature is relatively low and the precipitation is low.The high value of O3 is easy to occur under meteorological conditions with high temperature and low rainfall.PM10 and NO2 are highly correlated,Secondary particulate matter in PM10 may mainly originate from the secondary conversion of NO2 in the atmosphere,and nitrate is the major contributing source of PM10.The total emission reduction measures of NOx and particulate matter are one of the main factors for the reduction of NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 pollution in the province in recent years.According to the trend forecast,in 2025,the annual average PM2.5 is 34 μg·m-3,and the rate of good days is 87.9％.It is necessary to continue to adhere to accurate pollution control and scientific pollution control,and air quality can be continuously improved.关键词
四川/空气污染/关联性分析/趋势预测Key words
sichuan/air pollution/association analysis/trend forecasting分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
易灵,钟果,向秋实..2015-2023年四川省环境空气中污染物间关联分析及趋势预测[J].中国沼气,2026,44(3):75-80,6.
