北京大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(3)：499-514,16.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.068
源荷双重不确定性下热电联供型微网的模糊经济调度
Fuzzy Economic Dispatching of Combined Heat and Power Microgrid under Double Uncertainty of Source and Load
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the reliable operation capability of a combined heat and power microgrid(CHP-MG)in a harsh environment,a fuzzy economic dispatching strategy of CHP-MG considering the double uncertainty of source and load is proposed based on the typical scenarios of wind,light,electricity and heat.Firstly,a combination method of Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)and K-means clustering is used to generate typical scenarios of predicted values of wind,light,electricity and heat.Secondly,triangular or trapezoid fuzzy parameters are used to represent the uncertainty of wind,light,electricity and heat prediction errors,and the certainty constraints of CHP-MG are transformed into fuzzy chance constraints based on credibility theory.Thirdly,according to the clear equivalence class of fuzzy chance constraints,the chance constraints with triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy parameters are clarified,and the corresponding deterministic mixed integer programming model is formed.Finally,the rationality of the proposed model and method is verified by Matlab/Cplex simulation,which provides a reliable economic scheduling scheme for CHP-MG.关键词
热电联供型微网/经济调度/源荷不确定性/模糊机会约束/场景生成Key words
combined heat and power microgrid(CHP-MG)/economic dispatching/uncertainty of source and load/fuzzy chance constraints/scenario generation引用本文复制引用
顾吉鹏,邓国辉,张伟杰,王剑晓,代旭..源荷双重不确定性下热电联供型微网的模糊经济调度[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(3):499-514,16.基金项目
智能电网国家科技重大专项(2024ZD0802900,2024ZD0802901)资助 （2024ZD0802900,2024ZD0802901）
