草地学报2026，Vol.34Issue(6)：2229-2241,13.DOI:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.025
基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域上游草地退化时空分异特征及预测研究
Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Prediction of Grassland Degradation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model
摘要
Abstract
Taking the grassland in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the research object,based on multi-source data from 2000 to 2023,the degradation problem was analyzed from the dual perspectives of"grassland coverage type transformation+degradation evaluation index system",and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future degradation pattern.The results showed that:(1)The grassland is mainly com-posed of medium coverage grassland.Over the past 23 years,the total area of grassland has decreased by 2201.60 km2,and the coverage conversion has fluctuated greatly,showing obvious spatial differentiation char-acteristics.(2)The proportion of un-degradation grassland has decreased from 59.77%to 54.62%,showed an overall"one decrease and three increases"degradation feature.Spatially,it presented a pattern of"low in the southwest and high in the northeast",and the area of regions with increased degradation grades was larger than that of regions with decreased grades.(3)By 2030,the proportion of un-degradation grassland will further decline,while the proportions of mild,moderate and severe degradation grassland will increase,and the degra-dation trend will continue to intensify.The research can provide a scientific basis for regional grassland protec-tion and management.关键词
草地利用动态变化/草地退化/CA-Markov模型/黄河流域上游Key words
Grassland utilization dynamic changes/Grassland degradation/CA-Markov model/Upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张艳,张嘉倩..基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域上游草地退化时空分异特征及预测研究[J].草地学报,2026,34(6):2229-2241,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41971033) （41971033）
陕西省重大科技项目(2022ZDLSF07-05)资助 （2022ZDLSF07-05）
