东北亚学刊Issue(3)：19-36,18.DOI:10.19498/j.cnki.dbyxk.2026.03.002
国家跨期决策中的时间折现逻辑与中美战略博弈:一个分析框架
The Logic of Temporal Discounting in National Intertemporal Decision-Making and the Sino-U.S.Strategic Competition:An Analytical Framework
摘要
Abstract
National intertemporal decision-making involves weighing strategic costs and benefits at different points in time and making choices and judgments.Temporal discounting constitutes the core variable of this behavioral logic.In the process of intertemporal decision-making,a state applies the temporal discounting factors to set long-term and short-term goals and estimate corresponding benefits,thereby coordinating resource allocation across the temporal dimension to achieve a dynamic balance between current and future strategies.Based on the temporal discounting effect model,this paper elucidates the intrinsic mechanism and operational mechanism of national intertemporal decision-making.When conducting intertemporal decisions,states are often driven by both time anxiety and complex system effects.Relying on episodic foresight,they shape a strategic rhythm that is favorable to themselves and seek the optimal arrangement of intertemporal benefits.As a core anchor point in the evolution of the international system,the strategic rivalry between China and the United States profoundly reflects the logic of temporal discounting.After Trump took office for his second term,the United States showed a pronounced tendency toward short-term decision-making due to the combined effects of time anxiety and systemic pressures.It has been willing to sacrifice long-term strategic stability and international credibility in exchange for immediate gains under the"America First"framework.To this end,the Trump administration has used threats of force,diplomatic blackmail,trade decoupling,financial sanctions,and cultural infiltration,attempting to reshape the strategic rhythm in order to maintain its hegemony and obtain asymmetric intertemporal optimal benefits.关键词
时间折现/跨期决策/情景预见/战略节奏/中美战略博弈Key words
temporal discounting/intertemporal decision-making/episodic foresight/strategic rhythm/Sino-U.S.strategic competition分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
孙志强..国家跨期决策中的时间折现逻辑与中美战略博弈:一个分析框架[J].东北亚学刊,2026,(3):19-36,18.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"大国崛起的战略节奏及其对华启示研究"(24BGJ001) （24BGJ001）
