东北亚学刊Issue(3)：64-86,23.DOI:10.19498/j.cnki.dbyxk.2026.03.004
何以突变:高市早苗内阁对台战略转型的深层逻辑
What Drives the Abrupt Shift?——The Logic of the Takachi Cabinet's Strategic Transformation of Taiwan Policy
摘要
Abstract
Japan's successive governments have long adhered to a posture of strategic ambiguity in their Taiwan policy.However,following Sanae Takaichi's assumption of the premiership,Japan's Taiwan policy underwent a rapid shift toward strategic clarity.Drawing on neoclassical realism,this article investigates the sources of this abrupt transformation.This article finds that,against the backdrop of intensifying systemic structural pressures from the China-U.S.strategic competition,Japan's threat perception as a maritime state has been markedly heightened,prompting the Japanese government to elevate the strategic priority accorded to the Taiwan region in its assessment of the credibility of American security commitments.Concurrently,a confluence of unit-level factors—including Takaichi's misperceptions,the internal power configuration within the Liberal Democratic Party,the prevailing disposition of Japan's strategic community and public toward the Taiwan issue,and the historical path dependencies embedded in Japan's strategic culture regarding its Taiwan policy—has collectively propelled Japan toward an offensive national threat perception,leading to an assertive and concentrated strategic orientation on the Taiwan region.The Takaichi cabinet's strategic reorientation on the Taiwan region not only undermines the foundation of the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations,but also exerts a pronounced destabilizing effect on the regional strategic order in East Asia.In response to the challenges posed by Japan's abrupt strategic shift in its Taiwan policy,China must cultivate a strategic mindset,combining steadfast strategic resolve with calibrated strategic flexibility.关键词
高市早苗政权/日本对台政策/新古典现实主义/中日关系Key words
Takaichi administration/Japan's policy toward Taiwan/neoclassical realism/Sino-Japanese relations分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
洪云鑫..何以突变:高市早苗内阁对台战略转型的深层逻辑[J].东北亚学刊,2026,(3):64-86,23.基金项目
浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地浙江工商大学东亚研究院课题(24JDDYZX04) （24JDDYZX04）
上海市哲学社会科学规划"区域国别研究"专项课题"东亚地缘变局下日韩涉华舆情风险研判与上海差异化人文交流策略研究"(2025VGB006) （2025VGB006）
