当代经济科学2026，Vol.48Issue(3)：71-84,14.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.2026028
未来产业政策与人工智能发展
Future Industrial Policy and Artificial Intelligence Development
摘要
Abstract
Future industrial are an important vehicle for fostering new quality productive forces and a key support for building a modern industrial system.As an important component of future industries,artificial intelligence(AI)makes it of great practical significance to assess the impact of future industrial policy on AI development.Based on city-level data in China from 2009 to 2023,this paper manually collects and organizes textual data on future industry-related policies implemented by local governments,and uses a multi-period DID model to examine the impact of the implementation of future industrial policies on the development of AI.It also tests the mechanisms of innovation activities,entrepreneurial activities,and government fiscal expenditure on science and technology. The results show that the implementation of future industrial policies significantly promotes the AI development,and this conclusion remains robust across multiple tests.The implementation of future industrial policy promotes the development of AI by stimulating innovation and entrepreneurial activities and increasing government fiscal expenditure on science and technology.The implementation of future industrial policy has a significant driving effect on AI development in eastern cities,non-resource-based cities,cities with lower consumption-investment ratios,and cities with lower levels of AI development. The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)It evaluates the economic effects of future industry policy.While existing research has explored the development of future industries from various perspectives,most of this research mainly remains at the theoretical level,with empirical analysis being relatively scarce.This paper innovatively evaluates the economic effects of future industry policies from the perspective of policies implemented by local governments,providing a framework for subsequent research on future industry-related issues.(2)It approaches AI development from the perspective of future industry policies.Existing studies primarily focus on the economic effects of AI development,with few exploring the influencing factors.Even fewer studies consider the issue from the standpoint of future industry policies.Future industry policies can provide systematic and forward-looking institutional support for AI development,ensuring that technological evolution aligns with economic and social development goals.This paper attempts to fill this gap.(3)It constructs the mechanism through which future industry policies influence AI development through three channels:innovation activities,entrepreneurial activities,and government fiscal expenditure on science and technology.These three channels form a relatively complete support system,where innovation activities provide the technological foundation and knowledge reserves for AI,entrepreneurial activities facilitate the market transformation and commercialization of technological achievements,and government fiscal expenditure on science and technology offers financial support and policy guidance for AI development. Based on these findings,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)Formulating differentiated future industry policies.Future industry policy exerts a significant driving effect on AI development,but their impacts vary across contexts.In non-resource-based cities,regions with a low consumption-investment ratio,or areas where AI development is still at an early stage,local governments should prioritize the formulation and implementation of future industry policies to fully leverage their role in promoting AI development.(2)Building a policy ecosystem for AI development.Innovation,entrepreneurship,and fiscal science and technology expenditure constitute the key mechanisms through which future industry policies affect AI development.However,reliance on a single channel tends to weaken policy effectiveness.Therefore,local governments should establish a comprehensive policy ecosystem for AI development,which should include not only industrial policies represented by future industrial policy,but also innovation and entrepreneurship strategies as well as structural reforms in government fiscal expenditure.(3)Strengthening the strategic guidance of future industry policies for digital economy development.Given that future industry policies can significantly promote AI development,policymakers should fully acknowledge their strategic role in advancing the digital economy when designing industrial policy frameworks.关键词
未来产业政策/人工智能发展/新质生产力/创新活动/创业活动/政府财政科技支出Key words
future industrial policy/AI development/new quality productivity/innovation activities/entrepreneurial activities/government fiscal expenditure on science and technology引用本文复制引用
李言,孙献贞..未来产业政策与人工智能发展[J].当代经济科学,2026,48(3):71-84,14.基金项目
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(24NDQN054YB). （24NDQN054YB）
