摘要
Abstract
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy not only affects the operation of the U.S.economy and financial system,but is also an important exogenous variable shaping the global economic and financial landscape.In 2025,the Federal Reserve conducted a new round of its five-year review of the monetary policy framework and released an updated version.However,the Fed and its monetary policy still face many uncertainties and challenges.This paper analyzes the most likely rational cri-tiques and recommendations that could influence the Fed's future development from three key perspectives:its independence,functions,and governance structure;interest rate policy;and balance sheet policy.It also assesses the possible future evo-lution of the monetary policy framework and its implementation based on existing conditions and constraints.The study finds that the Fed's independence and func-tions may become more focused on monetary policy.Policy objectives and functions are likely to place greater emphasis on price stability.Policy tools will rely more heavily on interest rates and stronger rule-based constraints,while the roles of large-scale asset purchases and reserve balances may be reduced.However,further interest rate cuts by the Fed are likely to be constrained by the level of the neutral interest rate,making additional progress difficult.Likewise,continued balance sheet reduction will be constrained by the need to maintain ample reserves and market liquidity.Although various stakeholders in the U.S.have proposed a number of im-portant reform ideas,these proposals still lack key quantitative specifications,as well as the actionable plans,making near-term reforms more likely to focus on technical rather than structural changes.关键词
美联储独立性/货币政策/中性利率/银行准备金Key words
Federal Reserve Independence/Monetary Policy/Neutral Interest Rate/Bank Reserves分类
管理科学
