电力系统自动化2026，Vol.50Issue(12)：16-30,15.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20241220002
新能源功率预测综合评价与预测-决策一体化
Comprehensive Evaluation for Renewable Energy Power Forecasting and Forecasting-Decision Making Integration
摘要
Abstract
In the context of new power systems with an increasing proportion of renewable energy,the renewable energy power forecasting has become one of the key technologies supporting high-proportion accommodation of renewable energy,which is widely used in such aspects as security analysis,optimal dispatching,stability control,and electricity market trading.Firstly,the renewable energy power forecasting technologies and evaluation indicators are outlined,and the characteristics and applicability of the existing evaluation indicators are analyzed.Secondly,the consistency problem between power forecasting and decision-making in the existing system is discussed,and the closed-loop forecasting-decision making-evaluation framework is constructed.Then,the application scenarios of renewable energy power forecasting are summarized;the quantitative evaluation system of forecasting values is discussed;and the value-oriented renewable energy power forecasting is constructed.Finally,future research directions are explored concerning forecasting value quantification,comprehensive evaluation indicators,value-oriented forecasting technologies,and forecasting-decision making integration,in order to provide practical ideas for the development of renewable energy power forecasting technologies in the context of new power systems.关键词
新能源/功率预测/综合评价指标/价值导向/决策/一致性/一体化Key words
renewable energy/power forecasting/comprehensive evaluation indicator/value-oriented/decision-making/consistency/integration引用本文复制引用
万灿,陈燕惠,鞠平..新能源功率预测综合评价与预测-决策一体化[J].电力系统自动化,2026,50(12):16-30,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金资助项目(52422706) （52422706）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52277130) （52277130）
国家自然科学基金委员会-国家电网公司智能电网联合基金资助项目(U2066601). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52422706,No.52277130)and National Natural Science Foundation of China-State Grid Joint Fund for Smart Grid(No.U2066601). （U2066601）
