当代经济管理2026，Vol.48Issue(8)：69-82,14.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2026.08.007
劳动保护政策的实施是否影响了地区生育水平:育龄女性就业的视角
Does the Implementation of Labor Protection Policies Affect Regional Fertility:From the Perspective of Employment of Women of Childbearing Age
摘要
Abstract
Existing research on fertility support policies has focused primarily on family policies,lacking empirical evidence from the labor market per-spective.Adopting the perspective of labor protection in the labor market,this paper exploits the exogenous shock of the implementation of the Labor Contract Law in 2008 to examine the impact of labor protection policies on regional fertility levels.Using panel data from 270 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2000 to 2023,the empirical results from the generalized difference-in-differences(DID)model show that regions more heavily affected by the law experienced a greater increase in birth rates.This effect remains robust after controlling for population structure,indicating a significant fer-tility-promoting effect of enhanced labor protection.Further analysis from the perspective of the binding force of labor contract protection reveals that the stronger the binding force,the higher the fertility probability of women,which further confirms the aforementioned effect.Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect is attributed to three factors:Enhanced labor protection has not exerted a negative impact on employment;It significantly reduces the fer-tility penalty faced by women;And it improves women's job security.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the fertility-promoting effect is more pro-nounced for first-child fertility and in regions with initially lower levels of labor market regulation.This study provides empirical evidence for boosting fertility through strengthened employment protection,offers a new labor market perspective for establishing and improving current fertility support poli-cies,and is of great significance for raising the overall fertility level of society.关键词
劳动保护/生育/生育惩罚/就业安全感Key words
labor protection/fertility/fertility penalty/job security分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
夏璋煦,丁守海..劳动保护政策的实施是否影响了地区生育水平:育龄女性就业的视角[J].当代经济管理,2026,48(8):69-82,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国式现代化进程中扩大中等收入群体的实现路径研究"(23ZD174) （23ZD174）
重庆市社会科学规划年度项目"人口安全视域下当代青年晚育的成因、影响及对策研究"(2024NDQN002). （2024NDQN002）
