安全与环境工程2026，Vol.33Issue(3)：27-36,10.DOI:10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20251160
基于组合赋权二维灰云模型的煤矿水害风险评价方法
Coal mine water hazard risk assessment based on a two-dimensional grey cloud model with combined weighting
摘要
Abstract
To address the strong subjectivity in determining risk grades and the coexistence of fuzziness and randomness in evaluation indices for coal mine water hazard risk assessment,a coal mine water hazard risk assessment method based on combined weighting and a two-dimensional grey cloud model is proposed.According to water control regulations and site-specific conditions,an evaluation index system consisting of 5 primary indicators and 22 secondary indicators is established.The G1 method and an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)method are employed,and game theory is introduced to obtain the combined weights of the indicators.Furthermore,a two-dimensional grey cloud model of risk occurrence probability and accident consequence severity(P-S,hereinafter referred to as probability-severity)is developed.Through Monte Carlo simulation,the membership degrees of each indicator to four risk grades and the multiplicative comprehensive risk values are obtained;risk cloud maps are plotted in the P-S plane,and risk grades are determined using a 5×5 risk matrix.A case study of a coal mine in Wuhai City shows that the overall water hazard risk is classified as general risk(grade Ⅲ),indicating that the risk is generally controllable while certain grade Ⅱ high-risk scenarios still exist.The evaluation results are basically consistent with site conditions and engineering understanding,demonstrating that the proposed risk assessment method has certain feasibility.关键词
煤矿水害/概率-后果/二维灰云模型/博弈论组合赋权/风险矩阵Key words
coal mine water hazard/probability-consequence/two-dimensional grey cloud model/gametheoretic combined weighting/risk matrix分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
姜福川,张扬,吴俊杰,楚思晗,侯夏..基于组合赋权二维灰云模型的煤矿水害风险评价方法[J].安全与环境工程,2026,33(3):27-36,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51208282) （51208282）
