广东农业科学2026，Vol.53Issue(4)：44-57,14.DOI:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2026.04.005
基于Biomod2组合模型的入侵害虫黑腹尼虎天牛适生区预测
Prediction of Suitable Areas for the Invasive Pest Neoclytus acuminatus Based on the Biomod2 Ensemble Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Clarify the distribution pattern of suitable areas for Neoclytus acuminatus,a major invasive forest pest in China,and its response to future climate change as well as its potential invasion risk,so as to provide a scientific basis for precise prevention and control of this pest.[Method]Based on the global distribution data of N.acuminatus,current and future climate data under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5),topographic factors,and host vegetation distribution data,we predicted the potential suitable areas of N.acuminatus in China using the Biomod2 ensemble model,identified its potential damage areas through spatial overlay analysis,and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and centroid migration patterns of its suitable areas under climate change.[Result]Under current climatic conditions,the total potential suitable area of N.acuminatus in China reaches 474.02 × 104 km2,accounting for 49.38％of the country's total land area.The highly suitable areas(92.69 × 104 km2)are mainly concentrated in southern Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Jiangxi,Anhui,Fujian,Guangxi,Guangdong and other regions in China.Under four future SSP climate scenarios,the total suitable area shows an expanding trend with rising CO2 emission concentrations,with the newly increased suitable area ranging from 77.36 × 104 km2 to 177.85 × 104 km2.The suitable areas present an overall expansion trend toward high-latitude and western regions of China,with a maximum westward migration distance of the distribution centroid reaching 1 033.31 km.The overlay analysis of suitable areas and host distribution revealed that the potential damage area of N.acuminatus in China is 102.26 × 104 km2,accounting for 46.44％of the total host distribution area.[Conclusion]N.acuminatus has a wide suitable range and high invasion risk in China,and climate change will further expand its suitable areas.Its potential damage areas are highly overlapped with the major forest regions and orchards in China.It is recommended to strengthen quarantine monitoring and early warning at the expansion front of the suitable areas to strictly prevent its spread and invasion.关键词
黑腹尼虎天牛/Biomod2组合模型/适生区预测/物种分布模型/气候变化/质心迁移Key words
Neoclytus acuminatus/Biomod2 ensemble model/suitable areas prediction/species distribution model/climate change/centroid migration分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
项星月,孙雅姝,王满囷,周爱明..基于Biomod2组合模型的入侵害虫黑腹尼虎天牛适生区预测[J].广东农业科学,2026,53(4):44-57,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC2604900) （2023YFC2604900）
