广东农业科学2026，Vol.53Issue(4)：101-116,16.DOI:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2026.04.009
广东省中晚熟荔枝产量"大小年"现象气象条件差异分析
Analysis of Differences in Meteorological Conditions for Alternate Bearing of Mid-late Maturing Litchi Production in Guangdong Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the driving mechanism of meteorological anomalies on the alternate bearing phenomenon in mid-late maturing litchi in Guangdong Province,and provide a theoretical basis for stable yield and efficiency improvement of litchi production in Guangdong Province.[Method]Based on the fifth-generation global atmospheric reanalysis dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5),meteorological observation data and litchi production data,this study selected 2025 and 2018 as the high-yield years,and 2024 and 2019 as the low-yield years for mid-late maturing litchi in Guangdong Province.Taking four typical phenological stages,namely flower bud physiological differentiation stage,flower bud morphological differentiation stage,flowering and fruit-setting stage,and fruit development stage,as the research objects,we analyzed the differences in four meteorological factors including air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration,and revealed the effects of temporal and spatial distribution differences of meteorological factors on litchi yield fluctuation.[Result]The alternate bearing of mid-late maturing litchi in Guangdong Province is closely correlated with four meteorological factors:air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration.Compared with low-yield years,high-yield years presented a relative humidity difference of-21％to-1％across the entire phenological period,and sunshine duration increased by 3 to 76 h/month.The temperature difference ranged from-1.6 ℃ to-0.1 ℃ during flower bud differentiation,and from-2.5 ℃ to-0.5 ℃ at the flowering and fruit-setting stage.Precipitation exerted distinct stage-specific effects on litchi yield.There was no significant difference in precipitation during flower bud differentiation between high-yield and low-yield years.However,the precipitation difference reached-410 mm to-20 mm/month during the flowering and fruit-setting stage and fruit development stage,indicating that a relatively dry environment is conducive to increasing litchi yield.The La Niña sea surface temperature pattern significantly intensifies the East Asian winter monsoon by modulating regional atmospheric circulation,thereby forming climatic conditions favorable for litchi yield improvement in Guangdong Province.[Conclusion]The alternate bearing of mid-late maturing litchi in Guangdong Province is closely associated with fluctuations in meteorological factors throughout the whole phenological period and regional atmospheric circulation.Against the background of global warming,great importance should be attached to preventing and addressing climate risks in the litchi industry.关键词
荔枝/中晚熟/产量/大小年/气象要素/广东省/拉尼娜型海温/大气环流Key words
litchi/mid-late maturing/production/alternate bearing/meteorological factors/Guangdong Province/La Niña sea surface temperature/atmospheric circulation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李文基,张柳红,龙景超,张羽..广东省中晚熟荔枝产量"大小年"现象气象条件差异分析[J].广东农业科学,2026,53(4):101-116,16.基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2024A1515510034) （2024A1515510034）
广东省气象局科技项目(GRMC2023M15,GRMC2025Q05) （GRMC2023M15,GRMC2025Q05）
广东省气候中心科研项目(QH202413) （QH202413）
广东海洋大学博士人才引进科研启动经费资助项目(R19018) （R19018）
中国气象局金融气象重点创新团队项目(CMA2024ZD03) （CMA2024ZD03）
