灌溉排水学报2026，Vol.45Issue(7)：151-162,12.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025389
1972-2023年京津冀地区极端气候事件的时空变化特征
Spatiotemporal variations of extreme climate events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme climate events.This paper analysed the spatiotemporal variation of extreme climate events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in central China.[Method]The analysis was based on daily meteorological data measured from 159 stations across the region during 1972–2023.Twenty-eight extreme climate indices were calculated using the RClimDex model.Multiple analytical approaches,including the McLeod trend test,univariate linear regression and generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution model,were used to identify the spatiotemporal variation in these indices.[Result]Temporally,extreme temperature experienced pronounced changes,with the length of crop growing seasons increasing at a rate of 4 days per decade.Spatially,the growing season was longer in the southern plains than in the northwestern plateau.Frost days and cold days decreased by 4.6 days and 3.9 days per decade,respectively,while the number of warm summer days and warm nights increased at rates of 3.3 days and 11.7 days per decade,respectively.Spatially,cold events were more frequent in the northwestern mountainous areas but had declined from 1972 to 2023.In contrast,warm events mainly occurred in the southeastern plains and had increased from 1972 to 2023.The increasing rate of minimum temperature was 0.3 days per decade,higher than that of maximum temperature.Extreme precipitation was spatiotemporally heterogeneous.Temporal changes in annual precipitation and extreme precipitation did not show significant long-term trends,despite pronounced interannual variability.Spatially,extreme precipitation events were more frequent on the southern slopes of the Yanshan Mountains and eastern slopes of the Taihang Mountains;the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation increased along the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang piedmont zone.The number of consecutive humid days increased slightly in coastal areas.Temporal variation in regional annual precipitation showed no noticeable trend,but precipitation has become more extreme and localized.[Conclusion]Over the past 50 years,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become more warming and drying.Meanwhile,extreme precipitation events have intensified,especially on the southern Yanshan slopes and eastern Taihang slopes.This study identifies the spatial clustering and potential hazards of regional extreme precipitation.These findings can help develop mitigation strategies to alleviate the adverse impact of climate change in the region.关键词
京津冀地区/极端气候指数/时空变化特征/极端气温指数/极端降水指数Key words
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/extreme climate indices/spatial and temporal variation characteristics/extreme temperature index/extreme precipitation index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
高霞,李睿,乔平,郑元鑫..1972-2023年京津冀地区极端气候事件的时空变化特征[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(7):151-162,12.基金项目
中国气象局华北区域气象科技创新项目(HBXM202503) （HBXM202503）
