干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(6)：1135-1146,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.328
暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估
Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification
摘要
Abstract
Establishing a comprehensive climate risk assessment framework is essential for evaluating and pre-dicting regional climate change.However,previous studies have primarily focused on climate disasters or climate change in isolation,with limited attention given to the comprehensive climate risk index(CRI).To address this gap,this study examines the Tianshan Mountains of China and develops a CRI based on four climate risk indica-tors:Drought,high temperature,low temperature,and temperature-humidity.This analysis utilizes observational data from 26 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020,along with multi-model ensemble data from CMIP6,to conduct an integrated assessment and provide future projections of climate risks in the area.The results show that(1)Over the past 60 years,both temperature and precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains have steadily increased,demonstrating a significant warming and wetting trend.(2)The CRI has risen substantially,reflecting an in-creased climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains over the last six decades.Most areas in the Tianshan Mountains are categorized as having medium or lower climate risk,with the central and northern parts exhibiting relatively low risk levels,whereas the eastern and southwestern areas exhibit higher climate risks.(3)The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data accurately simulate temperature and precipitation patterns in the Tianshan Mountains,mak-ing it suitable for future climate risk projection analysis.Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the CRI is expected to continue to rise,indicating that climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains will increase,with the eastern part facing significantly greater risks than the western part.关键词
CMIP6/暖湿化/综合气候风险指数/中国天山Key words
CMIP6/warming and humidification/comprehensive climate risk index/Tianshan Mountains of China引用本文复制引用
潘永毅,李雪梅,孙钦珂,姜筱筱,高鸿,梁小健..暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(6):1135-1146,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42261026) （42261026）
西部之光人才培养计划(25JR6KA005) （25JR6KA005）
新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室开放基金(XJYS0907-2023-01)资助 （XJYS0907-2023-01）
