干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(6)：1135-1150,16.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.06.03
1980-2021年蒙古高原极端降雪时空变化特征及对不同影响因子的响应
Temporal and spatial variations in extreme snowfall over the Mongolian Plateau from 1980 to 2021 and their response to different influencing factors
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global warming,extreme climate events have grown more frequent and in-tense,particularly extreme snowfall events.Changes in extreme snowfall not only pose challenges to the ecosys-tem of the Mongolian Plateau but may also exert considerable effects on the local socioeconomy.Understanding the patterns and causes of changes in extreme snowfall is therefore of great importance for ecological protection and the improvement of disaster resilience.Taking the Mongolian Plateau as the study area,this paper monitors the spatiotemporal dynamics of snowfall and extreme snowfall on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980 to 2021 by employing methods such as correlation analysis and trend analysis,to analyze the spatiotemporal variation charac-teristics and driving factors of extreme snowfall under the backdrop of global warming.The results show the fol-lowing:(1)Total snowfall on the Mongolian Plateau exhibited a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2021,and its spa-tial distribution generally followed the pattern of a gradual increase from south to north.(2)The extreme snowfall amount(R95P),the contribution rate of extreme snowfall(R95C),and the maximum daily snowfall(Rx1)de-creased at rates of 0.11 mm,0.004%,and 0.01 mm per year,respectively,while the total heavy snowfall(R10P)and heavy snow days(R10D)increased at rates of 0.05 mm and 0.001 d per year,respectively.(3)Snowfall amount,R95P,R95C,and Rx1 were negatively correlated with the temperature in the snow cover season,where-as R10P and R10D showed a positive correlation with it.Snowfall amount and most extreme snowfall indices in the study area increased with rising latitude and altitude.The findings on the spatiotemporal distribution charac-teristics of extreme snowfall can provide a key scientific basis for predicting the occurrence risk of extreme snow-fall on the Mongolian Plateau,formulating targeted emergency management strategies,and enhancing the region-al capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation.关键词
极端降雪/时空分布/驱动分析/蒙古高原Key words
extreme snowfall/spatiotemporal distribution/driving factors analysis/Mongolian Plateau引用本文复制引用
杜昊阳,萨楚拉,孟凡浩,罗敏,张雨惠,张翔,刘子玉,王保林..1980-2021年蒙古高原极端降雪时空变化特征及对不同影响因子的响应[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(6):1135-1150,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42461021) （42461021）
内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2025KYPT0137) （2025KYPT0137）
内蒙古自治区自然基金项目(2025MS04024) （2025MS04024）
