国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(6)：1-11,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.06.001
动荡变革下的世界能源发展趋势
World energy development trends in an era of turbulence and change
摘要
Abstract
Global energy development is entering a period of turbulent transformation,with geopolitics emerging as a central factor shaping energy policy decisions.Drawing on the"World and China Energy Outlook"modeling framework,and in light of new features in global geopolitical dynamics,this paper innovatively designs such three scenarios as"Chasm","Baseline",and"Linkage"—to systematically simulate global energy trajectories under geopolitical volatility by setting energy development basic parameters including world population,economic growth,and technology.The findings indicate that global energy demand will reach between 20.2 and 21.4 billion tons of oil equivalent by 2060 across the three scenarios,a clear shift towards a cleaner energy mix and greater electrification of end-use sectors is evident,the diffusion of advanced technologies hinges on the depth of international cooperation,both the timing and magnitude of peak oil and gas demand keep substantial uncertainty,and intensifying rivalry for energy leadership further complicates the prospect of meeting the 2℃ climate target.To navigate the implications of global upheaval and transition for energy systems more effectively,it proposes such measures as deepening international energy cooperation to provide a stabilizing force for energy development,enhancing the integrated development of diverse energy sources to elevate energy system resilience,maintaining stable upstream investment in oil and gas to make supply at a robust level,as well as pay high attention to technological innovation progress and its impact on energy development.关键词
地缘政治/能源发展/能源转型/能源供需/国际合作/技术创新/气候变化Key words
geopolitics/energy development/energy transition/energy supply and demand/international cooperation/technological innovation/climate change分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴谋远,向征艰,姚子修,李然,樊慧,刘凯雷,左艺,任杰..动荡变革下的世界能源发展趋势[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(6):1-11,11.基金项目
本文为中国石油集团发展计划部战略研究课题"世界与中国能源展望研究(2025年)"(项目编号:2025B01189)的成果. （2025年）
