国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(6)：106-113,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.06.011
致密气单位完全成本三维量化模型构建
A three‑dimensional quantitative model for unit full cost of tight gas
摘要
Abstract
To gain a thorough understanding of the dominant controlling factors of the unit full cost for tight gas investment projects and to support the large-scale,cost-effective development of tight gas reservoirs,this paper takes 10 tight gas reservoirs in the Sichuan Basin as its research subjects and innovatively develops a three-dimensional quantitative model for the unit full cost using the Monte Carlo method.The findings indicate that operating cost(weight 0.45)and depreciation and depletion(weight 0.23)are identified as the core influencing factors of tight gas development costs with the consistency ratio(CR=0.06)confirming the rationality of the weighting scheme by constructing a judgment matrix comprising six cost items including operating cost,depreciation and depletion,administrative expense,financial expense,selling expense,and business tax and surcharges using an analytic hierarchy process method,sensitivity analysis further identifies operating cost and depreciation and depletion as the most sensitive factors,a target function for Monte Carlo simulation of the unit full cost is formulated,and a three-dimensional quantitative decision-making model is established for different probability intervals under the dual constraints of operating cost and depreciation and depletion.This model enables the quantitative,multi-dimensional visualization of how these two key factors affect the total full cost,allows for direct evaluation of the probability of achieving a target full cost,and provides technical support for benefit risk warning and optimal decision-making throughout the tight gas development process.关键词
致密气/单位完全成本/三维量化模型/蒙特卡罗模拟/敏感性分析Key words
tight gas/unit full cost/three-dimensional quantitative model/Monte Carlo simulation/sensitivity analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
余果,李海涛,程晓雯..致密气单位完全成本三维量化模型构建[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(6):106-113,8.基金项目
2024年度中国石油天然气集团有限公司青年科技专项计划"四川盆地天然气储量建产评价及开发规划优化模型研究"(编号:2024DQ03028). （编号:2024DQ03028）
