光通信技术2026，Vol.50Issue(3)：95-101,7.DOI:10.13921/j.cnki.issn1002-5561.2026.03.016
基于二元混合随机过程的光纤跳线剩余寿命预测
Remaining life prediction of optical fiber patch cords based on bivariate hybrid stochastic process
摘要
Abstract
Since a traditional single stochastic process model is difficult to accurately describe the degradation trend of optical fi-ber patch cords during high-temperature accelerated aging,a reliability assessment and remaining useful life prediction method based on a bivariate hybrid stochastic process is proposed.This method establishes a joint degradation model for insertion loss and return loss using a nonlinear Wiener process and a nonlinear Gamma process.The model parameters are estimated using an adaptive differential evolution algorithm,and the correlation between the two performance parameters is characterized by a Copula function.Experimental analysis shows that,compared with the single-performance degradation model based on the Wie-ner process,the joint degradation model exhibits higher reliability and conservativeness in reliability assessment.关键词
光纤跳线/非线性Wiener过程/非线性Gamma过程/Copula函数/可靠性评估/剩余寿命预测Key words
optical fiber patch cord/nonlinear Wiener process/nonlinear Gamma process/Copula function/reliability assess-ment/remaining useful life prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈文林,锁斌,齐洋..基于二元混合随机过程的光纤跳线剩余寿命预测[J].光通信技术,2026,50(3):95-101,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U1830133)资助 （U1830133）
四川省高效电源变换技术工程研究中心基金项目(JS20231000536)资助 （JS20231000536）
中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2023ZYDF022)资助. （2023ZYDF022）
