环境保护科学2026，Vol.52Issue(3)：156-163,8.DOI:10.16803/j.cnki.issn.1004-6216.202509032
长三角区域居民直接碳排放变化趋势及影响因素研究
Research on trends and influencing factors of residents'direct carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region
摘要
Abstract
The Yangtze River Delta,as the region with the most developed economy and the highest level of urbanization in China,plays a significant role in promoting green and low-carbon development,realizing the national"dual carbon"strategy,and building a Beautiful China Initiative.Based on data from 2012 to 2023 statistical yearbooks,the direct carbon emissions of residents in the Yangtze River Delta and their influencing factors were calculated using the emission inventory method and the Kaya-LMDI model.The results showed that the total direct carbon emissions of residents in the Yangtze River Delta region exhibited a growing trend during the study period,with an average annual growth rate of 4.81%.Among the provinces,the highest cumulative growth rate was observed in Zhejiang Province,reaching 93.72%.The analysis of influencing factors indicated that the energy structure effect and the energy intensity effect were identified as the main factors inhibiting direct carbon emissions from residents,whereas the consumption level effect and the population scale effect were found to be the primary drivers of increased carbon emissions.Based on these findings,policy recommendations were proposed,including promoting the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure,improving regional energy efficiency,guiding green consumption patterns,and optimizing population distribution and urbanization governance,in order to enhance the region's capacity for coordinated emission reduction and green development.关键词
长三角区域/居民/碳排放/变化趋势/影响因素Key words
the Yangtze River Delta region/residents/carbon emissions/changing trends/influencing factors分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郑银玲,李妍..长三角区域居民直接碳排放变化趋势及影响因素研究[J].环境保护科学,2026,52(3):156-163,8.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD183) （21&ZD183）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(B240207112) （B240207112）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(B240207032) （B240207032）
