摘要
Abstract
To clarify the differences in the development of the beef cattle industry between regions and the whole country,and explore the laws of industrial development,based on the data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2015-2023,this paper systematically compares the development characteristics and driving mechanisms of the beef cattle industry in Chongqing and the whole country from four core dimensions:output value,stock quantity,slaughter quantity,and urban-rural consumption volume.The analysis shows that from 2015 to 2023,the national beef cattle industry presented a balanced model of"stable growth in both production and consumption".The production side continued to expand(the annual average growth rate of beef cattle slaughter was 2.23％,and the annual average growth rate of stock quantity was 1.9％),the consumption side steadily upgraded(the annual average beef consumption of urban residents increased from 2.4 kg to 3.9 kg,and the urban-rural consumption ratio narrowed from 3∶1 to 1.77∶1),and the in-dustrial chain coordination efficiency was high(the"consumption-production"transmission cycle was 3.2 years,and the slaughter conversion rate remained stable between 45％and 47％).Chongqing showed an un-balanced model of"consumption leading and production catching up",with significant advantages on the consumption side.The compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of beef consumption of urban residents in Chongqing was 11.45％,1.86 times that of the whole country(6.26％),and the consumption volume in 2023 was 15％higher than the national average;the CAGR of rural beef consumption(16.83％)also led the whole country.However,the production side experienced a period of"adjustment-recovery":due to en-vironmental protection rectification,the stock quantity dropped sharply by 25.27％in 2017,and after 2019,driven by intelligent breeding technology,the growth rate of beef output(11.53％)surpassed that of the whole country(7.91％).There were obvious differences in core driving forces:the whole country relied on"policy guidance+market regulation",for example,the supply guarantee policy in 2020 drove the stock quantity to increase by 4.64％;Chongqing relied on"cultural empowerment+technology to make up for shortcomings",for example,hot pot culture contributed 38.2％of the revenue of the catering industry,and intelligent equipment improved the turnover efficiency by 14.9％.Based on this,it is suggested that Chongqing establish an early warning mechanism for consumption fluctuations and an urban-rural coordi-nation mechanism,and the whole country learn from Chongqing's experience in consumption-driven and technology application,so as to promote the high-quality development of the beef cattle industry through"production efficiency improvement,consumption optimization and industrial coordination".关键词
肉牛产业/区域对比/生产消费/重庆Key words
beef industry/regional comparison/production and consumption/Chongqing分类
管理科学
