海洋预报2026，Vol.43Issue(3)：115-131,17.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2026.03.011
基于变权理论的台风灾害风险评估及驱动机制研究:以福建省为例
Typhoon disaster risk assessment based on variable weight theory:A case study of Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
To scientifically identify the regional differentiation characteristics of typhoon disaster risks under normal circumstances,and to enhance the accuracy and adaptability of disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making,this study constructs a typhoon disaster risk assessment model for county-level units in Fujian Province based on variable weights theory.According to the regional disaster system theory,a comprehensive evaluation index system is established from four dimensions:the hazard of triggering factors,the sensitivity of the environment for disaster formation,the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies,and the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation.The combined weighting method of game theory is used to determine the constant weight,the variable weight theory is introduced to achieve dynamic adjustment of the weights,and the ArcGIS natural breakpoint method is used to define the variable weight intervals.Finally,a spatial differentiation map of typhoon disaster risk in Fujian Province is generated and the risk driving mechanism is analyzed by using the geographical detector.The results show that the spatial differentiation of typhoon disaster risk in Fujian Province is significant,presenting a gradient distribution feature of"high in the coastal areas,low in the inland areas,high in the plains,and low in the mountainous areas".The high-risk areas are concentrated in the core areas of the coastal regions,and the low-risk areas are distributed in the areas of western Fujian.Factors such as process rainfall,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,and the proportion of construction area have strong explanatory power,and the synergy effect of social economic development and natural triggering factors significantly intensifies regional risks.关键词
灾害风险/变权理论/县域单元/空间分异/地理探测器Key words
disaster risk/variable weight theory/county-level unit/spatial distribution/geographical detector分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈兆芳,余晨樑..基于变权理论的台风灾害风险评估及驱动机制研究:以福建省为例[J].海洋预报,2026,43(3):115-131,17.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(25BZZ057). （25BZZ057）
