海洋预报2026，Vol.43Issue(3)：132-140,9.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2026.03.012
天津港低能见度影响下的海事交通风险评估研究
Research on risk assessment of maritime traffic under the impact of low visibility in Tianjin port
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the risk of marine traffic at Tianjin port under low visibility weather conditions and support safe production in the marine economy,we collect marine traffic data at Tianjin port and multi-source fused visibility observation data of the Yellow and Bohai Seas in the period of 2018-2023,analyze the influence of low visibility on marine traffic,construct a risk assessment model based on natural disaster risk assessent theories,and classify the risk levels of each port area of Tianjin port.The study shows that:the spatial distribution of marine traffic accidents and traffic control under the influence of low visibility is basically the same,with the highest frequency of accidents in the Lingang port area,and the densest control frequency in the main port area and the anchorage.Overall,the control rate of each port area grows with the decrease of visibility,and the probability of control rises significantly when the visibility is less than 1 km,which to a certain extent reflects the sharp increase in the risk of marine traffic in the condition.The risk classification shows that the main port area and the Lingang port area are extremely high-risk areas,the Dagang port area is a high risk area,the anchorage is a medium-risk area,and the Eco-city port area is a low-risk area.关键词
天津港/低能见度/海事交通风险/自然灾害风险评估/风险区划Key words
Tianjin port/low visibility/maritime traffic risk/natural hazard risk assessment/risk zoning分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
张希帆,郭玲,王雪娇,于新清..天津港低能见度影响下的海事交通风险评估研究[J].海洋预报,2026,43(3):132-140,9.基金项目
天津市海洋气象重点实验室开放基金项目(2023TKLOM06) （2023TKLOM06）
环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202206) （QYXM202206）
天津市气象局科研项目(202422ybxm1). （202422ybxm1）
