计算机科学与探索2026，Vol.20Issue(7)：1906-1931,26.DOI:10.3778/j.issn.1673-9418.2510022
森林与草原火蔓延预测方法对比研究与展望
Comparative Study and Prospects of Forest and Grassland Fire Spread Prediction Methods
摘要
Abstract
Fire spread prediction is a critical technical component in wildfire risk assessment and emergency decision-making for both forest and grassland ecosystems.From a cross-ecosystem comparative perspective,this study focuses on forests and grasslands as two representative fuel ecosystems and conducts a systematic comparison and integrated analysis of fire spread prediction models,with particular attention to the pronounced differences among ecosystems in fuel structure,wind sensitivity,and model adaptability.Based on the core principles of fire spread prediction models,existing approaches are systematically reviewed,outlining the technological evolution from physical and empirical models,statistical learning and machine learning models,and deep learning models,to multi-source intelligent fusion models.By considering key factors such as fuel characteristics,wind-field driving features,and computational requirements,the applicability of different models in forest and grassland scenarios is analyzed,and their performance differences in terms of temporal response characteristics and computational efficiency are compared.Within a forest-grassland comparative framework,cross-ecosystem transfer and mutual learning mechanisms between fire spread prediction models are further summarized from the perspectives of mechanism representation,data organization,and algorithm implementation.In addition,emerging trends in current research,including cross-scale coupling,interpretable modeling,multimodal data fusion,and data frame-work construction,are synthesized,providing a systematic reference for model selection,comparison,and methodological research on fire spread prediction under different ecosystem conditions.关键词
火蔓延预测/森林火灾/草原火灾/多源数据/人工智能Key words
fire spread prediction/forest fires/grassland fires/multi-source data/artificial intelligence分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王晴雯,刘志强,张旭,李文静..森林与草原火蔓延预测方法对比研究与展望[J].计算机科学与探索,2026,20(7):1906-1931,26.基金项目
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2025MS06003,2025MS06056) （2025MS06003,2025MS06056）
内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2021GG0250) （2021GG0250）
国家自然科学基金(61962044) （61962044）
自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(JY20220324). This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(2025MS06003,2025MS06056),the Science and Technology Program of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(2021GG0250),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61962044),and the Basic Scientific Research Fund for Universities Affiliated to the Autonomous Region(JY20220324). （JY20220324）
